Sa Worldwide Mutual Fund Forecast - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| SAWMX Fund | USD 11.30 0.01 0.09% |
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Sa Worldwide Moderate on the next trading day is expected to be 11.30 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.04 and the sum of the absolute errors of 2.13. SAWMX Mutual Fund Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Sa Worldwide stock prices and determine the direction of Sa Worldwide Moderate's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Sa Worldwide's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Sa Worldwide to cross-verify your projections. SAWMX |
Most investors in Sa Worldwide cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, fund markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Sa Worldwide's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Sa Worldwide's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
Sa Worldwide simple exponential smoothing forecast is a very popular model used to produce a smoothed price series. Whereas in simple Moving Average models the past observations for Sa Worldwide Moderate are weighted equally, Exponential Smoothing assigns exponentially decreasing weights as Sa Worldwide Moderate prices get older. Sa Worldwide Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 20th of April
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Sa Worldwide Moderate on the next trading day is expected to be 11.30 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.04, mean absolute percentage error of 0, and the sum of the absolute errors of 2.13.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict SAWMX Mutual Fund prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Sa Worldwide's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Sa Worldwide Mutual Fund Forecast Pattern
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Sa Worldwide Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Sa Worldwide's Mutual Fund value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Sa Worldwide's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 10.90 and 11.70, respectively. We have considered Sa Worldwide's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Sa Worldwide mutual fund data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Sa Worldwide mutual fund, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 110.128 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.0062 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.0355 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0031 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 2.13 |
Predictive Modules for Sa Worldwide
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Sa Worldwide Moderate. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the mutual fund market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the mutual fund market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Sa Worldwide's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Other Forecasting Options for Sa Worldwide
For every potential investor in SAWMX, whether a beginner or expert, Sa Worldwide's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. SAWMX Mutual Fund price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in SAWMX. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Sa Worldwide's price trends.Sa Worldwide Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Sa Worldwide mutual fund to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Sa Worldwide could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Sa Worldwide by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Sa Worldwide Moderate Technical and Predictive Analytics
The mutual fund market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Sa Worldwide's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Sa Worldwide's current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Sa Worldwide Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Sa Worldwide mutual fund reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Sa Worldwide shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Sa Worldwide mutual fund market strength indicators, traders can identify Sa Worldwide Moderate entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Daily Balance Of Power | 9.2 T | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 1.0 | |||
| Day Median Price | 11.3 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 11.3 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | 0.005 | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | 0.01 |
Sa Worldwide Risk Indicators
The analysis of Sa Worldwide's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Sa Worldwide's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting sawmx mutual fund prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 0.3104 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 0.334 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 0.4081 | |||
| Variance | 0.1665 | |||
| Downside Variance | 0.2433 | |||
| Semi Variance | 0.1116 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (0.35) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Currently Active Assets on Macroaxis
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Sa Worldwide to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Equity Analysis module to research over 250,000 global equities including funds, stocks and ETFs to find investment opportunities.