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Jpmorgan Smartretirement Mutual Fund Forecast - Naive Prediction

JP
SRJIX -- USA Fund  

USD 20.66  0.05  0.24%

Investors can use this prediction interface to forecast Jpmorgan Smartretirement historic stock prices and determine the direction of Jpmorgan Smartretirement 2035 Fund R5 Class future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. However looking at historical price movement exclusively is usually misleading. Macroaxis recommends to always use this module together with analysis of Jpmorgan Smartretirement historical fundamentals such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Additionally take a look at Historical Fundamental Analysis of Jpmorgan Smartretirement to cross-verify your projections.
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A naive forecasting model for Jpmorgan Smartretirement is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of Jpmorgan Smartretirement 2035 Fund R5 Class value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.
Given 30 days horizon, the value of Jpmorgan Smartretirement 2035 Fund R5 Class on the next trading day is expected to be 21.075647

Jpmorgan Smartretirement Mutual Fund Forecast Pattern

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Jpmorgan Smartretirement Forecasted Value

Market Value
20.66
February 19, 2020
21.08
Expected Value
24.14
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

AICAkaike Information Criteria117.0404
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation0.1704
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0083
SAESum of the absolute errors10.5674
This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of Jpmorgan Smartretirement 2035 Fund R5 Class. This model really is a simplistic model, and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly. Instead, consider using either the moving average model, or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e. greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Volatility Measures

Jpmorgan Smartretirement Risk Indicators