JPMorgan SmartRetirement Naive Prediction

SRJSX -- USA Fund  

USD 21.39  0.11  0.51%

Investors can use this prediction interface to forecast JPMorgan SmartRetirement historic prices and determine the direction of JPMorgan SmartRetirement 2035 F future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. However looking at historical price movement exclusively is usually misleading. Macroaxis recommends to always use this module together with analysis of JPMorgan SmartRetirement historical fundamentals such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Also please take a look at Historical Fundamental Analysis of JPMorgan SmartRetirement to cross-verify your projections.
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Horizon     30 Days    Login   to change
A naive forecasting model for JPMorgan SmartRetirement is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of JPMorgan SmartRetirement 2035 F value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.
Given 30 days horizon, the value of JPMorgan SmartRetirement 2035 F on the next trading day is expected to be 21.567332

JPMorgan SmartRetirement Prediction Pattern

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JPMorgan SmartRetirement Forecasted Value

Market Value
21.39
December 14, 2019
21.57
Expected Value
23.35
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

AICAkaike Information Criteria113.6306
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation0.0769
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0037
SAESum of the absolute errors4.6924
This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of JPMorgan SmartRetirement 2035 F. This model really is a simplistic model, and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly. Instead, consider using either the moving average model, or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e. greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Volatility Measures

JPMorgan SmartRetirement Risk Indicators

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