Top Systems Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction
| TOPS Stock | 813.60 20.50 2.46% |
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Top Systems L on the next trading day is expected to be 828.73 with a mean absolute deviation of 25.86 and the sum of the absolute errors of 1,578. Top Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Top Systems stock prices and determine the direction of Top Systems L's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Top Systems' historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Top Systems to cross-verify your projections. Top |
Most investors in Top Systems cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Top Systems' time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Top Systems' price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
A naive forecasting model for Top Systems is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of Top Systems L value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period. Top Systems Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 25th of April
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Top Systems L on the next trading day is expected to be 828.73 with a mean absolute deviation of 25.86, mean absolute percentage error of 927.75, and the sum of the absolute errors of 1,578.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Top Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Top Systems' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Top Systems Stock Forecast Pattern
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Top Systems Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Top Systems' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Top Systems' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 826.12 and 831.35, respectively. We have considered Top Systems' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Top Systems stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Top Systems stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 124.9433 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 25.8626 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0351 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 1577.621 |
Predictive Modules for Top Systems
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Top Systems L. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Top Systems' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Other Forecasting Options for Top Systems
For every potential investor in Top, whether a beginner or expert, Top Systems' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Top Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Top. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Top Systems' price trends.Top Systems Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Top Systems stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Top Systems could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Top Systems by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Top Systems L Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Top Systems' price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Top Systems' current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Top Systems Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Top Systems stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Top Systems shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Top Systems stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Top Systems L entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 0.0519 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | (0.47) | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 0.98 | |||
| Day Median Price | 812.65 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 812.97 | |||
| Market Facilitation Index | 43.3 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | (9.30) | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | (20.50) | |||
| Relative Strength Index | 13.39 |
Top Systems Risk Indicators
The analysis of Top Systems' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Top Systems' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting top stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.85 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 2.21 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.68 | |||
| Variance | 7.17 | |||
| Downside Variance | 7.41 | |||
| Semi Variance | 4.86 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (2.36) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Top Systems in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Top Systems' short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Top Systems options trading.
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Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Top Systems to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Correlation Analysis module to reduce portfolio risk simply by holding instruments which are not perfectly correlated.
Complementary Tools for Top Stock analysis
When running Top Systems' price analysis, check to measure Top Systems' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Top Systems is operating at the current time. Most of Top Systems' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Top Systems' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Top Systems' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Top Systems to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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