Two Oaks Naive Prediction

TWOAX -- USA Fund  

USD 13.46  0.10  0.75%

Investors can use this prediction interface to forecast Two Oaks historic prices and determine the direction of Two Oaks Diversified Growth And future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. However looking at historical price movement exclusively is usually misleading. Macroaxis recommends to always use this module together with analysis of Two Oaks historical fundamentals such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Also please take a look at Historical Fundamental Analysis of Two Oaks to cross-verify your projections.
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Horizon     30 Days    Login   to change
A naive forecasting model for Two Oaks is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of Two Oaks Diversified Growth And value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.
Given 30 days horizon, the value of Two Oaks Diversified Growth And on the next trading day is expected to be 13.515721

Two Oaks Diversified Prediction Pattern

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Two Oaks Forecasted Value

October 14, 2019
13.46
Market Value
13.52
Expected Value
15.66
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

AICAkaike Information Criteria113.2956
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation0.07
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0053
SAESum of the absolute errors4.2703
This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of Two Oaks Diversified Growth And. This model really is a simplistic model, and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly. Instead, consider using either the moving average model, or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e. greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Volatility Measures

Two Oaks Risk Indicators

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