Taylor Wimpey Double Exponential Smoothing

TWODY -- USA Stock  

USD 20.77  0.88  4.42%

Investors can use this prediction interface to forecast Taylor Wimpey historic prices and determine the direction of Taylor Wimpey Plc ADR future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. However looking at historical price movement exclusively is usually misleading. Macroaxis recommends to always use this module together with analysis of Taylor Wimpey historical fundamentals such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Also please take a look at Historical Fundamental Analysis of Taylor Wimpey to cross-verify your projections.
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Horizon     30 Days    Login   to change
Double exponential smoothing - also known as Holt exponential smoothing is a refinement of the popular simple exponential smoothing model with an additional trending component. Double exponential smoothing model for Taylor Wimpey works best with periods where there are trends or seasonality.
Given 30 days horizon, the value of Taylor Wimpey Plc ADR on the next trading day is expected to be 20.77

Taylor Wimpey Plc Prediction Pattern

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Taylor Wimpey Forecasted Value

October 14, 2019
20.77
Market Value
20.77
Expected Value
25.57
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

AICAkaike Information CriteriaHuge
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors -0.0112
MADMean absolute deviation0.0915
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0048
SAESum of the absolute errors5.49
When Taylor Wimpey Plc ADR prices exhibit either an increasing or decreasing trend over time, simple exponential smoothing forecasts tend to lag behind observations. Double exponential smoothing is designed to address this type of data series by taking into account any Taylor Wimpey Plc ADR trend in the prices. So in double exponential smoothing past observations are given exponentially smaller weights as the observations get older. In other words, recent Taylor Wimpey observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older observations.

Volatility Measures

Taylor Wimpey Risk Indicators

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