Universal Health Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction

UHS Stock  USD 181.85  4.54  2.56%   
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Universal Health Services on the next trading day is expected to be 179.97 with a mean absolute deviation of  1.95  and the sum of the absolute errors of 120.69. Universal Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Universal Health stock prices and determine the direction of Universal Health Services's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Universal Health's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Although Universal Health's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Universal Health's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Universal Health fundamentals over time.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Universal Health to cross-verify your projections.
  
At this time, Universal Health's Inventory Turnover is comparatively stable compared to the past year. Receivables Turnover is likely to gain to 8.25 in 2024, whereas Payables Turnover is likely to drop 12.43 in 2024. . Common Stock Shares Outstanding is likely to gain to about 88.5 M in 2024, whereas Net Income Applicable To Common Shares is likely to drop slightly above 487.8 M in 2024.

Open Interest Against 2024-04-19 Universal Option Contracts

Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Universal Health's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Universal Health's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Universal Health stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Universal Health's open interest, investors have to compare it to Universal Health's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Universal Health is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Universal. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Most investors in Universal Health cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Universal Health's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Universal Health's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
A naive forecasting model for Universal Health is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of Universal Health Services value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.

Universal Health Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 29th of March

Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Universal Health Services on the next trading day is expected to be 179.97 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.95, mean absolute percentage error of 5.53, and the sum of the absolute errors of 120.69.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Universal Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Universal Health's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Universal Health Stock Forecast Pattern

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Universal Health Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Universal Health's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Universal Health's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 178.66 and 181.29, respectively. We have considered Universal Health's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
181.85
178.66
Downside
179.97
Expected Value
181.29
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Universal Health stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Universal Health stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria121.6583
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation1.9466
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0118
SAESum of the absolute errors120.6892
This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of Universal Health Services. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict Universal Health. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Predictive Modules for Universal Health

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Universal Health Services. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Universal Health's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
179.62180.90182.18
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
169.71170.99200.04
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
174.95179.00183.05
Details
16 Analysts
Consensus
LowTargetHigh
141.63155.64172.76
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Universal Health. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Universal Health's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Universal Health's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Universal Health Services.

Other Forecasting Options for Universal Health

For every potential investor in Universal, whether a beginner or expert, Universal Health's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Universal Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Universal. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Universal Health's price trends.

Universal Health Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Universal Health stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Universal Health could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Universal Health by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Universal Health Services Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Universal Health's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Universal Health's current price.

Universal Health Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Universal Health stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Universal Health shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Universal Health stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Universal Health Services entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Universal Health Risk Indicators

The analysis of Universal Health's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Universal Health's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting universal stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Also Currently Popular

Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.
When determining whether Universal Health Services is a strong investment it is important to analyze Universal Health's competitive position within its industry, examining market share, product or service uniqueness, and competitive advantages. Beyond financials and market position, potential investors should also consider broader economic conditions, industry trends, and any regulatory or geopolitical factors that may impact Universal Health's future performance. For an informed investment choice regarding Universal Stock, refer to the following important reports:
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Universal Health to cross-verify your projections.
Note that the Universal Health Services information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Universal Health's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try the Efficient Frontier module to plot and analyze your portfolio and positions against risk-return landscape of the market..

Complementary Tools for Universal Stock analysis

When running Universal Health's price analysis, check to measure Universal Health's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Universal Health is operating at the current time. Most of Universal Health's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Universal Health's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Universal Health's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Universal Health to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Universal Health's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Universal Health. If investors know Universal will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Universal Health listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth
0.297
Dividend Share
0.8
Earnings Share
10.24
Revenue Per Share
206.027
Quarterly Revenue Growth
0.074
The market value of Universal Health Services is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Universal that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Universal Health's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Universal Health's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Universal Health's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Universal Health's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Universal Health's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Universal Health is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Universal Health's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.