ProShares Ultra Double Exponential Smoothing

UXI -- USA Etf  

USD 86.20  0.22  0.25%

Investors can use this prediction interface to forecast ProShares Ultra historic prices and determine the direction of ProShares Ultra Industrials future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. However looking at historical price movement exclusively is usually misleading. Macroaxis recommends to always use this module together with analysis of ProShares Ultra historical fundamentals such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Also please take a look at Historical Fundamental Analysis of ProShares Ultra to cross-verify your projections.
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Horizon     30 Days    Login   to change
Double exponential smoothing - also known as Holt exponential smoothing is a refinement of the popular simple exponential smoothing model with an additional trending component. Double exponential smoothing model for ProShares Ultra works best with periods where there are trends or seasonality.
Given 30 days horizon, the value of ProShares Ultra Industrials on the next trading day is expected to be 86.07

ProShares Ultra Indu Prediction Pattern

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ProShares Ultra Forecasted Value

November 19, 2019
86.20
Market Value
86.07
Expected Value
91.78
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

AICAkaike Information CriteriaHuge
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors -0.3729
MADMean absolute deviation1.0149
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0131
SAESum of the absolute errors59.88
When ProShares Ultra Industrials prices exhibit either an increasing or decreasing trend over time, simple exponential smoothing forecasts tend to lag behind observations. Double exponential smoothing is designed to address this type of data series by taking into account any ProShares Ultra Industrials trend in the prices. So in double exponential smoothing past observations are given exponentially smaller weights as the observations get older. In other words, recent ProShares Ultra observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older observations.

Volatility Measures

ProShares Ultra Risk Indicators

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