Vanguard Index Triple Exponential Smoothing

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VIVIX -- USA Fund  

USD 46.30  0.87  1.84%

Investors can use this prediction interface to forecast Vanguard Index historic prices and determine the direction of Vanguard Index Trust Vanguard V future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. However looking at historical price movement exclusively is usually misleading. Macroaxis recommends to always use this module together with analysis of Vanguard Index historical fundamentals such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Also please take a look at Historical Fundamental Analysis of Vanguard Index to cross-verify your projections.
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Horizon     30 Days    Login   to change
Triple exponential smoothing for Vanguard Index - also known as the Winters method - is a refinement of the popular double exponential smoothing model with the addition of periodicity (seasonality) component. Simple exponential smoothing technique works best with data where there are no trend or seasonality components to the data. When Vanguard Index prices exhibit either an increasing or decreasing trend over time, simple exponential smoothing forecasts tend to lag behind observations. Double exponential smoothing is designed to address this type of data series by taking into account any trend in Vanguard Index price movement. However, neither of these exponential smoothing models address any seasonality of Vanguard Index Trust.
Given 30 days horizon, the value of Vanguard Index Trust Vanguard V on the next trading day is expected to be 46.252541

Vanguard Index Trust Prediction Pattern

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Vanguard Index Forecasted Value

Market Value
46.30
January 26, 2020
46.25
Expected Value
47.95
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

AICAkaike Information CriteriaHuge
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors 0.0561
MADMean absolute deviation0.2053
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0045
SAESum of the absolute errors12.1119
As with simple exponential smoothing, in triple exponential smoothing models past Vanguard Index observations are given exponentially smaller weights as the observations get older. In other words, recent observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older Vanguard Index Trust Vanguard V observations.

Volatility Measures

Vanguard Index Risk Indicators