Yum Brands Stock Forecast - Triple Exponential Smoothing

YUM Stock  USD 138.65  1.33  0.97%   
The Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Yum Brands on the next trading day is expected to be 138.72 with a mean absolute deviation of  0.94  and the sum of the absolute errors of 56.45. Yum Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Yum Brands stock prices and determine the direction of Yum Brands's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Yum Brands' historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Although Yum Brands' naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Yum Brands' systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Yum Brands fundamentals over time.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Yum Brands to cross-verify your projections.
To learn how to invest in Yum Stock, please use our How to Invest in Yum Brands guide.
  
At this time, Yum Brands' Fixed Asset Turnover is very stable compared to the past year. As of the 29th of March 2024, Asset Turnover is likely to grow to 1.61, though Inventory Turnover is likely to grow to (141.71). . As of the 29th of March 2024, Common Stock Shares Outstanding is likely to grow to about 383.8 M, while Net Income Applicable To Common Shares is likely to drop about 1.2 B.

Open Interest Against 2024-04-19 Yum Option Contracts

Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Yum Brands' spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Yum Brands' options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Yum Brands stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Yum Brands' open interest, investors have to compare it to Yum Brands' spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Yum Brands is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Yum. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Most investors in Yum Brands cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Yum Brands' time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Yum Brands' price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
Triple exponential smoothing for Yum Brands - also known as the Winters method - is a refinement of the popular double exponential smoothing model with the addition of periodicity (seasonality) component. Simple exponential smoothing technique works best with data where there are no trend or seasonality components to the data. When Yum Brands prices exhibit either an increasing or decreasing trend over time, simple exponential smoothing forecasts tend to lag behind observations. Double exponential smoothing is designed to address this type of data series by taking into account any trend in Yum Brands price movement. However, neither of these exponential smoothing models address any seasonality of Yum Brands.

Yum Brands Triple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 30th of March

Given 90 days horizon, the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Yum Brands on the next trading day is expected to be 138.72 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.94, mean absolute percentage error of 1.38, and the sum of the absolute errors of 56.45.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Yum Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Yum Brands' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Yum Brands Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest Yum BrandsYum Brands Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

Yum Brands Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Yum Brands' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Yum Brands' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 137.84 and 139.60, respectively. We have considered Yum Brands' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
138.65
137.84
Downside
138.72
Expected Value
139.60
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Yum Brands stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Yum Brands stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information CriteriaHuge
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors -0.0892
MADMean absolute deviation0.9408
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0071
SAESum of the absolute errors56.45
As with simple exponential smoothing, in triple exponential smoothing models past Yum Brands observations are given exponentially smaller weights as the observations get older. In other words, recent observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older Yum Brands observations.

Predictive Modules for Yum Brands

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Yum Brands. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Yum Brands' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
137.50138.39139.28
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
128.36129.25152.52
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
134.67137.82140.98
Details
28 Analysts
Consensus
LowTargetHigh
130.52143.43159.21
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Yum Brands. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Yum Brands' peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Yum Brands' competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Yum Brands.

Other Forecasting Options for Yum Brands

For every potential investor in Yum, whether a beginner or expert, Yum Brands' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Yum Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Yum. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Yum Brands' price trends.

Yum Brands Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Yum Brands stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Yum Brands could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Yum Brands by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Yum Brands Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Yum Brands' price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Yum Brands' current price.

Yum Brands Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Yum Brands stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Yum Brands shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Yum Brands stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Yum Brands entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Yum Brands Risk Indicators

The analysis of Yum Brands' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Yum Brands' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting yum stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Also Currently Popular

Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.
When determining whether Yum Brands is a strong investment it is important to analyze Yum Brands' competitive position within its industry, examining market share, product or service uniqueness, and competitive advantages. Beyond financials and market position, potential investors should also consider broader economic conditions, industry trends, and any regulatory or geopolitical factors that may impact Yum Brands' future performance. For an informed investment choice regarding Yum Stock, refer to the following important reports:
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Yum Brands to cross-verify your projections.
To learn how to invest in Yum Stock, please use our How to Invest in Yum Brands guide.
You can also try the Efficient Frontier module to plot and analyze your portfolio and positions against risk-return landscape of the market..

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Is Yum Brands' industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Yum Brands. If investors know Yum will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Yum Brands listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth
0.243
Dividend Share
2.42
Earnings Share
5.59
Revenue Per Share
25.181
Quarterly Revenue Growth
0.008
The market value of Yum Brands is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Yum that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Yum Brands' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Yum Brands' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Yum Brands' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Yum Brands' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Yum Brands' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Yum Brands is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Yum Brands' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.