Napco Security Technologies Stock Volatility
| NSSC Stock | USD 39.73 0.72 1.85% |
NAPCO Security appears to be very steady, given 3 months investment horizon. NAPCO Security Techn has Sharpe Ratio of 0.0921, which conveys that the company had a 0.0921% return per unit of volatility over the last 3 months. We have found twenty-nine technical indicators for NAPCO Security, which you can use to evaluate the volatility of the entity. Please exercise NAPCO Security's Downside Deviation of 2.1, market risk adjusted performance of 0.4026, and Mean Deviation of 1.62 to check out if our risk estimates are consistent with your expectations. Key indicators related to NAPCO Security's volatility include:
180 Days Market Risk | Chance Of Distress | 180 Days Economic Sensitivity |
NAPCO Security Stock volatility depicts how high the prices fluctuate around the mean (or its average) price. In other words, it is a statistical measure of the distribution of NAPCO daily returns, and it is calculated using variance and standard deviation. We also use NAPCO's beta, its sensitivity to the market, as well as its odds of financial distress to provide a more practical estimation of NAPCO Security volatility.
NAPCO |
Since volatility provides investors with entry points to take advantage of stock prices, companies, such as NAPCO Security can benefit from it. Downward market volatility can be a perfect environment for investors who play the long game. Here, they may decide to buy additional stocks of NAPCO Security at lower prices. For example, an investor can purchase NAPCO stock that has halved in price over a short period. This will lower your average cost per share, thereby improving your portfolio's performance when the markets normalize. Similarly, when the prices of NAPCO Security's stock rises, investors can sell out and invest the proceeds in other equities with better opportunities. Investing when markets are volatile with better valuations will accord both investors and companies the opportunity to generate better long-term returns.
Moving against NAPCO Stock
| 0.61 | FKWL | Franklin Wireless Corp | PairCorr |
| 0.6 | EXTR | Extreme Networks Financial Report 24th of April 2024 | PairCorr |
| 0.52 | ERIC | Telefonaktiebolaget Financial Report 12th of July 2024 | PairCorr |
| 0.46 | MKFG | Markforged Holding Corp Financial Report 9th of May 2024 | PairCorr |
NAPCO Security Market Sensitivity And Downside Risk
NAPCO Security's beta coefficient measures the volatility of NAPCO stock compared to the systematic risk of the entire market represented by your selected benchmark. In mathematical terms, beta represents the slope of the line through a regression of data points where each of these points represents NAPCO stock's returns against your selected market. In other words, NAPCO Security's beta of 0.86 provides an investor with an approximation of how much risk NAPCO Security stock can potentially add to one of your existing portfolios. NAPCO Security Technologies currently demonstrates below-average downside deviation. It has Information Ratio of 0.09 and Jensen Alpha of 0.29. Understanding different market volatility trends often help investors to time the market. Properly using volatility indicators enable traders to measure NAPCO Security's stock risk against market volatility during both bullish and bearish trends. The higher level of volatility that comes with bear markets can directly impact NAPCO Security's stock price while adding stress to investors as they watch their shares' value plummet. This usually forces investors to rebalance their portfolios by buying different financial instruments as prices fall.
3 Months Beta |Analyze NAPCO Security Techn Demand TrendCheck current 90 days NAPCO Security correlation with market (NYSE Composite)NAPCO Beta |
NAPCO standard deviation measures the daily dispersion of prices over your selected time horizon relative to its mean. A typical volatile entity has a high standard deviation, while the deviation of a stable instrument is usually low. As a downside, the standard deviation calculates all uncertainty as risk, even when it is in your favor, such as above-average returns.
Standard Deviation | 3.02 |
It is essential to understand the difference between upside risk (as represented by NAPCO Security's standard deviation) and the downside risk, which can be measured by semi-deviation or downside deviation of NAPCO Security's daily returns or price. Since the actual investment returns on holding a position in napco stock tend to have a non-normal distribution, there will be different probabilities for losses than for gains. The likelihood of losses is reflected in the downside risk of an investment in NAPCO Security.
Using NAPCO Put Option to Manage Risk
Put options written on NAPCO Security grant holders of the option the right to sell a specified amount of NAPCO Security at a specified price within a specified time frame. The put buyer has a limited loss and, while not fully unlimited gains, as the price of NAPCO Stock cannot fall below zero, the put buyer does gain as the price drops. So, one way investors can hedge NAPCO Security's position is by buying a put option against it. The put option used this way is usually referred to as insurance. If an undesired outcome occurs and loss on holding NAPCO Security will be realized, the loss incurred will be offset by the profits made with the option trade.
NAPCO Security's PUT expiring on 2024-04-19
Profit |
| NAPCO Security Price At Expiration |
Current NAPCO Security Insurance Chain
| Delta | Gamma | Open Int | Expiration | Current Spread | Last Price | |||
Put | 2024-04-19 PUT at $45.0 | -0.7521 | 0.0488 | 1 | 2024-04-19 | 4.7 - 7.6 | 2.0 | View |
Put | 2024-04-19 PUT at $40.0 | -0.6064 | 0.4087 | 9 | 2024-04-19 | 0.05 - 1.0 | 1.34 | View |
NAPCO Security Techn Stock Volatility Analysis
Volatility refers to the frequency at which NAPCO Security stock price increases or decreases within a specified period. These fluctuations usually indicate the level of risk that's associated with NAPCO Security's price changes. Investors will then calculate the volatility of NAPCO Security's stock to predict their future moves. A stock that has erratic price changes quickly hits new highs, and lows are considered highly volatile. A stock with relatively stable price changes has low volatility. A highly volatile stock is riskier, but the risk cuts both ways. Investing in highly volatile security can either be highly successful, or you may experience significant failure. There are two main types of NAPCO Security's volatility:
Historical Volatility
This type of stock volatility measures NAPCO Security's fluctuations based on previous trends. It's commonly used to predict NAPCO Security's future behavior based on its past. However, it cannot conclusively determine the future direction of the stock.Implied Volatility
This type of volatility provides a positive outlook on future price fluctuations for NAPCO Security's current market price. This means that the stock will return to its initially predicted market price. This type of volatility can be derived from derivative instruments written on NAPCO Security's to be redeemed at a future date.Transformation |
The output start index for this execution was zero with a total number of output elements of sixty-one. NAPCO Security Techn Average Price is the average of the sum of open, high, low and close daily prices of a bar. It can be used to smooth an indicator that normally takes just the closing price as input.
NAPCO Security Projected Return Density Against Market
Given the investment horizon of 90 days NAPCO Security has a beta of 0.8584 . This indicates NAPCO Security Technologies market returns are highly-sensitive to returns on the market. As the market goes up or down, NAPCO Security is expected to follow.Most traded equities are subject to two types of risk - systematic (i.e., market) and unsystematic (i.e., nonmarket or company-specific) risk. Unsystematic risk is the risk that events specific to NAPCO Security or Electronic Equipment, Instruments & Components sector will adversely affect the stock's price. This type of risk can be diversified away by owning several different stocks in different industries whose stock prices have shown a small correlation to each other. On the other hand, systematic risk is the risk that NAPCO Security's price will be affected by overall stock market movements and cannot be diversified away. So, no matter how many positions you have, you cannot eliminate market risk. However, you can measure a NAPCO stock's historical response to market movements and buy it if you are comfortable with its volatility direction. Beta and standard deviation are two commonly used measures to help you make the right decision.
NAPCO Security Technologies has an alpha of 0.2867, implying that it can generate a 0.29 percent excess return over NYSE Composite after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). Predicted Return Density |
| Returns |
What Drives a NAPCO Security Price Volatility?
Several factors can influence a stock's market volatility:Industry
Specific events can influence volatility within a particular industry. For instance, a significant weather upheaval in a crucial oil-production site may cause oil prices to increase in the oil sector. The direct result will be the rise in the stock price of oil distribution companies. Similarly, any government regulation in a specific industry could negatively influence stock prices due to increased regulations on compliance that may impact the company's future earnings and growth.Political and Economic environment
When governments make significant decisions regarding trade agreements, policies, and legislation regarding specific industries, they will influence stock prices. Everything from speeches to elections may influence investors, who can directly influence the stock prices in any particular industry. The prevailing economic situation also plays a significant role in stock prices. When the economy is doing well, investors will have a positive reaction and hence, better stock prices and vice versa.The Company's Performance
Sometimes volatility will only affect an individual company. For example, a revolutionary product launch or strong earnings report may attract many investors to purchase the company. This positive attention will raise the company's stock price. In contrast, product recalls and data breaches may negatively influence a company's stock prices.NAPCO Security Stock Risk Measures
Given the investment horizon of 90 days the coefficient of variation of NAPCO Security is 1085.75. The daily returns are distributed with a variance of 9.15 and standard deviation of 3.02. The mean deviation of NAPCO Security Technologies is currently at 1.64. For similar time horizon, the selected benchmark (NYSE Composite) has volatility of 0.62
α | Alpha over NYSE Composite | 0.29 | |
β | Beta against NYSE Composite | 0.86 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 3.02 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.09 |
NAPCO Security Stock Return Volatility
NAPCO Security historical daily return volatility represents how much of NAPCO Security stock's daily returns swing around its mean - it is a statistical measure of its dispersion of returns. The firm inherits 3.0244% risk (volatility on return distribution) over the 90 days horizon. By contrast, NYSE Composite accepts 0.6214% volatility on return distribution over the 90 days horizon. Performance |
| Timeline |
About NAPCO Security Volatility
Volatility is a rate at which the price of NAPCO Security or any other equity instrument increases or decreases for a given set of returns. It is measured by calculating the standard deviation of the annualized returns over a given period of time and shows the range to which the price of NAPCO Security may increase or decrease. In other words, similar to NAPCO's beta indicator, it measures the risk of NAPCO Security and helps estimate the fluctuations that may happen in a short period of time. So if prices of NAPCO Security fluctuate rapidly in a short time span, it is termed to have high volatility, and if it swings slowly in a more extended period, it is understood to have low volatility.
Please read more on our technical analysis page.| Last Reported | Projected for Next Year | ||
| Selling And Marketing Expenses | 3.4 M | 2.4 M | |
| Market Cap | 94.9 M | 99.7 M |
NAPCO Security's stock volatility refers to the amount of uncertainty or risk involved with the size of changes in its stock's price. It is a statistical measure of the dispersion of returns on NAPCO Stock over a specified period of time, often expressed as the standard deviation of daily returns. In other words, it measures how much NAPCO Security's price varies over time.
3 ways to utilize NAPCO Security's volatility to invest better
Higher NAPCO Security's stock volatility means that the price of its stock is changing rapidly and unpredictably, while lower stock volatility indicates that the price of NAPCO Security Techn stock is relatively stable. Investors and traders use stock volatility as an indicator of risk and potential reward, as stocks with higher volatility can offer the potential for more significant returns but also come with a greater risk of losses. NAPCO Security Techn stock volatility can provide helpful information for making investment decisions in the following ways:- Measuring Risk: Volatility can be used as a measure of risk, which can help you determine the potential fluctuations in the value of NAPCO Security Techn investment. A higher volatility means higher risk and potentially larger changes in value.
- Identifying Opportunities: High volatility in NAPCO Security's stock can indicate that there is potential for significant price movements, either up or down, which could present investment opportunities.
- Diversification: Understanding how the volatility of NAPCO Security's stock relates to your other investments can help you create a well-diversified portfolio of assets with varying levels of risk.
NAPCO Security Investment Opportunity
NAPCO Security Technologies has a volatility of 3.02 and is 4.87 times more volatile than NYSE Composite. 26 percent of all equities and portfolios are less risky than NAPCO Security. You can use NAPCO Security Technologies to enhance the returns of your portfolios. The stock experiences a large bullish trend. Check odds of NAPCO Security to be traded at $43.7 in 90 days.Average diversification
The correlation between NAPCO Security Technologies and NYA is 0.18 (i.e., Average diversification) for selected investment horizon. Overlapping area represents the amount of risk that can be diversified away by holding NAPCO Security Technologies and NYA in the same portfolio, assuming nothing else is changed.
NAPCO Security Additional Risk Indicators
The analysis of NAPCO Security's secondary risk indicators is one of the essential steps in making a buy or sell decision. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in NAPCO Security's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some common measures of NAPCO Security stock's risk such as standard deviation, beta, or value at risk, we also provide a set of secondary indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Risk Adjusted Performance | 0.0801 | |||
| Market Risk Adjusted Performance | 0.4026 | |||
| Mean Deviation | 1.62 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.85 | |||
| Downside Deviation | 2.1 | |||
| Coefficient Of Variation | 856.22 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.97 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential stocks, we recommend comparing similar stocks with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
NAPCO Security Suggested Diversification Pairs
Pair trading is one of the very effective strategies used by professional day traders and hedge funds capitalizing on short-time and mid-term market inefficiencies. The approach is based on the fact that the ratio of prices of two correlating shares is long-term stable and oscillates around the average value. If the correlation ratio comes outside the common area, you can speculate with a high success rate that the ratio will return to the mean value and collect a profit.
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The effect of pair diversification on risk is to reduce it, but we should note this doesn't apply to all risk types. When we trade pairs against NAPCO Security as a counterpart, there is always some inherent risk that will never be diversified away no matter what. This volatility limits the effect of tactical diversification using pair trading. NAPCO Security's systematic risk is the inherent uncertainty of the entire market, and therefore cannot be mitigated even by pair-trading it against the equity that is not highly correlated to it. On the other hand, NAPCO Security's unsystematic risk describes the types of risk that we can protect against, at least to some degree, by selecting a matching pair that is not perfectly correlated to NAPCO Security Technologies.
When determining whether NAPCO Security Techn offers a strong return on investment in its stock, a comprehensive analysis is essential. The process typically begins with a thorough review of NAPCO Security's financial statements, including income statements, balance sheets, and cash flow statements, to assess its financial health. Key financial ratios are used to gauge profitability, efficiency, and growth potential of Napco Security Technologies Stock. Outlined below are crucial reports that will aid in making a well-informed decision on Napco Security Technologies Stock: Check out Correlation Analysis to better understand how to build diversified portfolios, which includes a position in NAPCO Security Technologies. Also, note that the market value of any company could be tightly coupled with the direction of predictive economic indicators such as signals in state. You can also try the Portfolio Dashboard module to portfolio dashboard that provides centralized access to all your investments.
Complementary Tools for NAPCO Stock analysis
When running NAPCO Security's price analysis, check to measure NAPCO Security's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy NAPCO Security is operating at the current time. Most of NAPCO Security's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of NAPCO Security's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move NAPCO Security's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of NAPCO Security to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is NAPCO Security's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of NAPCO Security. If investors know NAPCO will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about NAPCO Security listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 2.182 | Dividend Share 0.223 | Earnings Share 1.16 | Revenue Per Share 4.828 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.124 |
The market value of NAPCO Security Techn is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of NAPCO that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of NAPCO Security's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is NAPCO Security's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because NAPCO Security's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect NAPCO Security's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between NAPCO Security's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if NAPCO Security is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, NAPCO Security's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.