MerVal (Argentina) Market Value

MERV -  Argentina Index  

 38,391  27,614  41.84%

MerVal's market value is the price at which a share of MerVal stock trades on a public exchange. It measures the collective expectations of MerVal investors about the entity's future performance. With this module, you can estimate the performance of a buy and hold strategy of MerVal and determine expected loss or profit from investing in MerVal over a given investment horizon. Check out MerVal Hype Analysis, MerVal Correlation, Portfolio Optimization, MerVal Volatility, as well as analyze MerVal Alpha and Beta and MerVal Performance.
Symbol
Backtest

Please note, there is a significant difference between MerVal's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine MerVal value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, MerVal's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.

MerVal 'What if' Analysis

In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to MerVal's index what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of MerVal.
0.00
06/03/2021
No Change 0.00  0.0 
In 2 months and 2 days
08/02/2021
0.00
If you would invest  0.00  in MerVal on June 3, 2021 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding MerVal or generate 0.0% return on investment in MerVal over 60 days.

MerVal Upside/Downside Indicators

Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure MerVal's index current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess MerVal upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.

MerVal Market Risk Indicators

Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for MerVal's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as MerVal's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use MerVal historical prices to predict the future MerVal's volatility.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of MerVal's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of MerVal in the context of predictive analytics.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimated ValueHigh
38,38538,39138,397
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
34,55246,23646,241
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNext ValueHigh
51,01451,01951,025
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowerMiddle BandUpper
52,41363,11273,811
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as MerVal. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against MerVal's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, MerVal's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in MerVal.

MerVal Backtested Returns

MerVal has Sharpe Ratio of -0.0301, which conveys that the entity had -0.0301% of return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. Macroaxis standpoint towards estimating the risk of any index is to look at both systematic and unsystematic factors of the business, including all available market data and technical indicators. MerVal exposes twenty-six different technical indicators, which can help you to evaluate volatility that cannot be diversified away.
The index secures a Beta (Market Risk) of 0.0, which conveys not very significant fluctuations relative to the market. Let's try to break down what MerVal's beta means in this case. the returns on MARKET and MerVal are completely uncorrelated. Even though it is essential to pay attention to MerVal price patterns, it is always good to be careful when utilizing equity historical price patterns. Our philosophy towards estimating any index's future performance is to check both, its past performance charts as well as the business as a whole, including all available technical indicators. MerVal exposes twenty-six different technical indicators, which can help you to evaluate its performance.
AdviceVolatility TrendExposureCorrelations

Auto-correlation

    
   0.40   

Average predictability

MerVal has average predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between MerVal time series from 3rd of June 2021 to 3rd of July 2021 and 3rd of July 2021 to 2nd of August 2021. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of MerVal price movement. The serial correlation of 0.4 indicates that just about 40.0% of current MerVal price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
Correlation Coefficient0.4
Spearman Rank Test-0.13
Residual Average0.0
Price Variance3.59986754E7

MerVal lagged returns against current returns

Autocorrelation, which is MerVal index's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting MerVal's index expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of MerVal returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that MerVal index has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the stock is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the stock movement to match the lagging time series.
 Current and Lagged Values 
Share
      Timeline 

MerVal regressed lagged prices vs. current prices

Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If MerVal index is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if MerVal index is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in MerVal index over time.
 Current vs Lagged Prices 
Share
      Timeline 

MerVal Lagged Returns

When evaluating MerVal's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of MerVal index have on its future price. MerVal autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, MerVal autocorrelation shows the relationship between MerVal index current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in MerVal.
 Regressed Prices 
Share
      Timeline 

Be your own money manager

Our tools can tell you how much better you can do entering a position in MerVal without increasing your portfolio risk or giving up expected return. As an individual investor, you need to find a reliable way to track all your investment portfolios. However, your requirements will often be based on how much of the process you decide to do yourself. In addition to allowing all investors analytical transparency into all their portfolios, our tools can evaluate.risk-adjusted returns of your individual positions relative to your overall portfolio.

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Check out MerVal Hype Analysis, MerVal Correlation, Portfolio Optimization, MerVal Volatility, as well as analyze MerVal Alpha and Beta and MerVal Performance. Note that the MerVal information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other MerVal's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try Equity Search module to search for activelly traded equities including funds and ETFs from over 30 global markets.

Other Tools for MerVal Index

When running MerVal price analysis, check to measure MerVal's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy MerVal is operating at the current time. Most of MerVal's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of MerVal's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move MerVal's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of MerVal to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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