Alcoa Stock Market Value

AA -  USA Stock  

USD 48.83  0.58  1.17%

Alcoa Corp's market value is the price at which a share of Alcoa Corp stock trades on a public exchange. It measures the collective expectations of Alcoa Corp investors about the entity's future performance. With this module, you can estimate the performance of a buy and hold strategy of Alcoa Corp and determine expected loss or profit from investing in Alcoa Corp over a given investment horizon. Please continue to Alcoa Corp Hype Analysis, Alcoa Corp Correlation, Alcoa Corp Valuation, Alcoa Corp Volatility, as well as analyze Alcoa Corp Alpha and Beta and Alcoa Corp Performance.
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The market value of Alcoa Corp is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Alcoa that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Alcoa Corp's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Alcoa Corp's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Alcoa Corp's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Alcoa Corp underlying business (such as pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Alcoa Corp's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Alcoa Corp value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Alcoa Corp's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.

Alcoa Corp 'What if' Analysis

In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to Alcoa Corp's stock what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of Alcoa Corp.
0.00
10/29/2019
No Change 0.00  0.0 
In 1 year 10 months and 22 days
09/18/2021
0.00
If you would invest  0.00  in Alcoa Corp on October 29, 2019 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding Alcoa Corp or generate 0.0% return on investment in Alcoa Corp over 690 days. Alcoa Corp is related to or competes with First Majestic, Anglogold Ashanti, Chemours, Celanese Corp, and Cf Industries. Alcoa Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, produces and sells bauxite, alumina, and aluminum products in the Uni...

Alcoa Corp Upside/Downside Indicators

Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure Alcoa Corp's stock current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess Alcoa Corp upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.

Alcoa Corp Market Risk Indicators

Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for Alcoa Corp's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as Alcoa Corp's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use Alcoa Corp historical prices to predict the future Alcoa Corp's volatility.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Alcoa Corp's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Alcoa Corp in the context of predictive analytics.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimated ValueHigh
47.3651.1855.00
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
44.6248.4452.26
Details
7 Analysts
Consensus
LowTarget PriceHigh
14.0043.7152.00
Details
Earnings
Estimates (5)
LowProjected EPSHigh
3.885.085.45
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Alcoa Corp. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Alcoa Corp's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Alcoa Corp's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in Alcoa Corp.

Alcoa Corp Backtested Returns

Alcoa Corp appears to be very steady, given 3 months investment horizon. Alcoa Corp secures Sharpe Ratio (or Efficiency) of 0.18, which signifies that the company had 0.18% of return per unit of standard deviation over the last 3 months. Our philosophy in foreseeing the volatility of a stock is to use all available market data together with stock-specific technical indicators that cannot be diversified away. By analyzing Alcoa Corp technical indicators you can presently evaluate if the expected return of 0.68% is justified by implied risk. Please makes use of Alcoa Corp's mean deviation of 2.97, and Risk Adjusted Performance of 0.109 to double-check if our risk estimates are consistent with your expectations.
On a scale of 0 to 100, Alcoa Corp holds a performance score of 13. The firm shows a Beta (market volatility) of 3.2637, which signifies a somewhat significant risk relative to the market. Let's try to break down what Alcoa's beta means in this case. As the market goes up, the company is expected to outperform it. However, if the market returns are negative, Alcoa Corp will likely underperform. Although it is vital to follow Alcoa Corp historical returns, it is good to be conservative about what you can do with the information regarding equity current trending patterns. The philosophy in foreseeing future performance of any stock is to evaluate the business as a whole together with its past performance, including all available fundamental and technical indicators. We have found twenty-seven technical indicators for Alcoa Corp, which you can use to evaluate the performance of the firm. Please makes use of Alcoa Corp information ratio, treynor ratio, and the relationship between the downside deviation and total risk alpha to make a quick decision on whether Alcoa Corp price patterns will revert.
AdviceVolatility TrendExposureCorrelations

Auto-correlation

    
  (0.59)   

Good reverse predictability

Alcoa Corp has good reverse predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between Alcoa Corp time series from 29th of October 2019 to 8th of October 2020 and 8th of October 2020 to 18th of September 2021. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of Alcoa Corp price movement. The serial correlation of -0.59 indicates that roughly 59.0% of current Alcoa Corp price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices. Given that Alcoa Corp has negative autocorrelation for selected time horizon, investors may consider taking a contrarian position regarding future price movement of Alcoa Corp for similar time interval.
Correlation Coefficient-0.59
Spearman Rank Test-0.42
Residual Average0.0
Price Variance99.6

Alcoa Corp lagged returns against current returns

Autocorrelation, which is Alcoa Corp stock's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting Alcoa Corp's stock expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of Alcoa Corp returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that Alcoa Corp stock has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the stock is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the stock movement to match the lagging time series.
 Current and Lagged Values 
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Alcoa Corp regressed lagged prices vs. current prices

Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If Alcoa Corp stock is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if Alcoa Corp stock is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in Alcoa Corp stock over time.
 Current vs Lagged Prices 
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      Timeline 

Alcoa Corp Lagged Returns

When evaluating Alcoa Corp's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of Alcoa Corp stock have on its future price. Alcoa Corp autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, Alcoa Corp autocorrelation shows the relationship between Alcoa Corp stock current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in Alcoa Corp.
 Regressed Prices 
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      Timeline 

Be your own money manager

Our tools can tell you how much better you can do entering a position in Alcoa Corp without increasing your portfolio risk or giving up expected return. As an individual investor, you need to find a reliable way to track all your investment portfolios. However, your requirements will often be based on how much of the process you decide to do yourself. In addition to allowing all investors analytical transparency into all their portfolios, our tools can evaluate.risk-adjusted returns of your individual positions relative to your overall portfolio.

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Portfolio Volatility

Check portfolio volatility and analyze historical return density to properly model market risk
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Pair Trading with Alcoa Corp

One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if Alcoa Corp position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in Alcoa Corp will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.

Alcoa Corp Pair Correlation

Equities Pair Trading Analysis

Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for Alcoa Corp and First Majestic Silver. Pair trading can be used as a hedging technique within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate better risk-adjusted return
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Please continue to Alcoa Corp Hype Analysis, Alcoa Corp Correlation, Alcoa Corp Valuation, Alcoa Corp Volatility, as well as analyze Alcoa Corp Alpha and Beta and Alcoa Corp Performance. Note that the Alcoa Corp information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Alcoa Corp's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try Headlines Timeline module to stay connected to all market stories and filter out noise. Drill down to analyze hype elasticity.

Complementary Tools for Alcoa Stock analysis

When running Alcoa Corp price analysis, check to measure Alcoa Corp's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Alcoa Corp is operating at the current time. Most of Alcoa Corp's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Alcoa Corp's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Alcoa Corp's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Alcoa Corp to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Alcoa Corp technical stock analysis exercises models and trading practices based on price and volume transformations, such as the moving averages, relative strength index, regressions, price and return correlations, business cycles, stock market cycles, or different charting patterns.
A focus of Alcoa Corp technical analysis is to determine if market prices reflect all relevant information impacting that market. A technical analyst looks at the history of Alcoa Corp trading pattern rather than external drivers such as economic, fundamental, or social events. It is believed that price action tends to repeat itself due to investors' collective, patterned behavior. Hence technical analysis focuses on identifiable price trends and conditions. More Info...