American Mutual Fund Market Value

AMFCX -  USA Fund  

USD 50.00  0.10  0.20%

American Mutual's market value is the price at which a share of American Mutual stock trades on a public exchange. It measures the collective expectations of American Mutual investors about the entity's future performance. With this module, you can estimate the performance of a buy and hold strategy of American Mutual and determine expected loss or profit from investing in American Mutual over a given investment horizon. Please continue to American Mutual Hype Analysis, American Mutual Correlation, Portfolio Optimization, American Mutual Volatility, as well as analyze American Mutual Alpha and Beta and American Mutual Performance.
Symbol
Backtest

Please note, there is a significant difference between American Mutual's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine American Mutual value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, American Mutual's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.

American Mutual 'What if' Analysis

In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to American Mutual's mutual fund what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of American Mutual.
0.00
07/03/2021
No Change 0.00  0.0 
In 31 days
08/02/2021
0.00
If you would invest  0.00  in American Mutual on July 3, 2021 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding American Mutual or generate 0.0% return on investment in American Mutual over 30 days. American Mutual is related to or competes with MFS Series, MFS Value, Columbia Fds, T Rowe, Oakmark Fund, Putnam Equity, and Invesco Diversified. The investment seeks current income, growth of capital and conservation of principal

American Mutual Upside/Downside Indicators

Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure American Mutual's mutual fund current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess American Mutual upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.

American Mutual Market Risk Indicators

Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for American Mutual's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as American Mutual's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use American Mutual historical prices to predict the future American Mutual's volatility.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of American Mutual's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of American Mutual in the context of predictive analytics.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimated ValueHigh
0.000.000.00
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Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
0.000.000.00
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Naive
Forecast
LowNext ValueHigh
49.8749.8749.87
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Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowerMiddle BandUpper
48.7749.5750.36
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as American Mutual. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against American Mutual's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, American Mutual's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in American Mutual.

American Mutual Backtested Returns

We consider American Mutual out of control. American Mutual secures Sharpe Ratio (or Efficiency) of 0.0491, which signifies that the fund had 0.0491% of return per unit of standard deviation over the last 3 months. Our philosophy in foreseeing the volatility of a fund is to use all available market data together with fund-specific technical indicators that cannot be diversified away. We have found twenty-one technical indicators for American Mutual, which you can use to evaluate the future volatility of the entity. Please confirm American Mutual mean deviation of 0.4751, and Risk Adjusted Performance of 0.0512 to double-check if the risk estimate we provide is consistent with the expected return of 0.0315%.
The fund shows a Beta (market volatility) of -0.0327, which signifies not very significant fluctuations relative to the market. Let's try to break down what American's beta means in this case. As returns on the market increase, returns on owning American Mutual are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During the bear market, American Mutual is likely to outperform the market. Although it is extremely important to respect American Mutual historical returns, it is better to be realistic regarding the information on equity current trending patterns. The philosophy in foreseeing future performance of any fund is to evaluate the business as a whole together with its past performance, including all available fundamental and technical indicators. By analyzing American Mutual technical indicators, you can presently evaluate if the expected return of 0.0315% will be sustainable into the future.
AdviceVolatility TrendExposureCorrelations

Auto-correlation

    
  (0.11)   

Insignificant reverse predictability

American Mutual has insignificant reverse predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between American Mutual time series from 3rd of July 2021 to 18th of July 2021 and 18th of July 2021 to 2nd of August 2021. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of American Mutual price movement. The serial correlation of -0.11 indicates that less than 11.0% of current American Mutual price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices. Given that American Mutual has negative autocorrelation for selected time horizon, investors may consider taking a contrarian position regarding future price movement of American Mutual for similar time interval.
Correlation Coefficient-0.11
Spearman Rank Test-0.08
Residual Average0.0
Price Variance0.15

American Mutual lagged returns against current returns

Autocorrelation, which is American Mutual mutual fund's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting American Mutual's mutual fund expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of American Mutual returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that American Mutual mutual fund has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the stock is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the stock movement to match the lagging time series.
 Current and Lagged Values 
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      Timeline 

American Mutual regressed lagged prices vs. current prices

Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If American Mutual mutual fund is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if American Mutual mutual fund is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in American Mutual mutual fund over time.
 Current vs Lagged Prices 
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      Timeline 

American Mutual Lagged Returns

When evaluating American Mutual's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of American Mutual mutual fund have on its future price. American Mutual autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, American Mutual autocorrelation shows the relationship between American Mutual mutual fund current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in American Mutual.
 Regressed Prices 
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      Timeline 

American Mutual Investors Sentiment

The influence of American Mutual's investor sentiment on the probability of its price appreciation or decline could be a good factor in your decision-making process regarding taking a position in American. The overall investor sentiment generally increases the direction of a stock movement in a one-year investment horizon. However, the impact of investor sentiment on the entire stock markets does not have a solid backing from leading economists and market statisticians.

Current Sentiment - AMFCX

American Mutual Investor Sentiment

Most of Macroaxis users are presently bullish on American Mutual. What is your sentiment towards investing in American Mutual? Are you bullish or bearish?
Bullish
Bearish
98% Bullish
2% Bearish
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Pair Trading with American Mutual

One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if American Mutual position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in American Mutual will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.

American Mutual Pair Correlation

Equities Pair Trading Analysis

Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for American Mutual and MFS Series Trust. Pair trading can be used as a hedging technique within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate better risk-adjusted return
Run Pair Correlation  
Please continue to American Mutual Hype Analysis, American Mutual Correlation, Portfolio Optimization, American Mutual Volatility, as well as analyze American Mutual Alpha and Beta and American Mutual Performance. Note that the American Mutual information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other American Mutual's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try Portfolio File Import module to quickly import all of your third-party portfolios from your local drive in csv format.

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When running American Mutual price analysis, check to measure American Mutual's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy American Mutual is operating at the current time. Most of American Mutual's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of American Mutual's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move American Mutual's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of American Mutual to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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American Mutual technical mutual fund analysis exercises models and trading practices based on price and volume transformations, such as the moving averages, relative strength index, regressions, price and return correlations, business cycles, stock market cycles, or different charting patterns.
A focus of American Mutual technical analysis is to determine if market prices reflect all relevant information impacting that market. A technical analyst looks at the history of American Mutual trading pattern rather than external drivers such as economic, fundamental, or social events. It is believed that price action tends to repeat itself due to investors' collective, patterned behavior. Hence technical analysis focuses on identifiable price trends and conditions. More Info...