Amgen Stock Market Value

AMGN -  USA Stock  

USD 243.96  1.39  0.57%

Amgen's market value is the price at which a share of Amgen stock trades on a public exchange. It measures the collective expectations of Amgen Inc investors about the entity's future performance. With this module, you can estimate the performance of a buy and hold strategy of Amgen Inc and determine expected loss or profit from investing in Amgen over a given investment horizon. Please continue to Amgen Hype Analysis, Amgen Correlation, Amgen Valuation, Amgen Volatility, as well as analyze Amgen Alpha and Beta and Amgen Performance.
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Is Amgen's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Amgen. If investors know Amgen will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Amgen listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
The market value of Amgen Inc is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Amgen that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Amgen's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Amgen's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Amgen's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Amgen's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Amgen's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Amgen value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Amgen's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.

Amgen 'What if' Analysis

In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to Amgen's stock what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of Amgen.
0.00
04/19/2022
No Change 0.00  0.0 
In 31 days
05/19/2022
0.00
If you would invest  0.00  in Amgen on April 19, 2022 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding Amgen Inc or generate 0.0% return on investment in Amgen over 30 days. Amgen is related to or competes with Merck. Amgen Inc. discovers, develops, manufactures, and delivers human therapeutics worldwide

Amgen Upside/Downside Indicators

Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure Amgen's stock current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess Amgen Inc upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.

Amgen Market Risk Indicators

Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for Amgen's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as Amgen's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use Amgen historical prices to predict the future Amgen's volatility.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Amgen's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Amgen in the context of predictive analytics.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimated ValueHigh
240.82241.97243.12
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Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
218.43259.33260.48
Details
18 Analysts
Consensus
LowTarget PriceHigh
185.00236.76298.00
Details
Earnings
Estimates (12)
LowProjected EPSHigh
16.6716.8616.98
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Amgen. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Amgen's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Amgen's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in Amgen Inc.

Amgen Inc Backtested Returns

We consider Amgen very steady. Amgen Inc secures Sharpe Ratio (or Efficiency) of 0.15, which signifies that the company had 0.15% of return per unit of standard deviation over the last 3 months. Our philosophy in foreseeing the volatility of a stock is to use all available market data together with stock-specific technical indicators that cannot be diversified away. We have found twenty-eight technical indicators for Amgen Inc, which you can use to evaluate the future volatility of the firm. Please confirm Amgen Inc mean deviation of 0.8075, and Risk Adjusted Performance of 0.1725 to double-check if the risk estimate we provide is consistent with the expected return of 0.17%.
Amgen has performance score of 10 on a scale of 0 to 100. The firm shows a Beta (market volatility) of 0.3095, which signifies possible diversification benefits within a given portfolio. Let's try to break down what Amgen's beta means in this case. As returns on the market increase, Amgen returns are expected to increase less than the market. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Amgen will be expected to be smaller as well. Although it is extremely important to respect Amgen Inc historical returns, it is better to be realistic regarding the information on equity current trending patterns. The philosophy in foreseeing future performance of any stock is to evaluate the business as a whole together with its past performance, including all available fundamental and technical indicators. By analyzing Amgen Inc technical indicators, you can presently evaluate if the expected return of 0.17% will be sustainable into the future. Amgen Inc right now shows a risk of 1.15%. Please confirm Amgen Inc information ratio, downside variance, day median price, as well as the relationship between the treynor ratio and kurtosis to decide if Amgen Inc will be following its price patterns.

Auto-correlation

    
  -0.89  

Excellent reverse predictability

Amgen Inc has excellent reverse predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between Amgen time series from 19th of April 2022 to 4th of May 2022 and 4th of May 2022 to 19th of May 2022. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of Amgen Inc price movement. The serial correlation of -0.89 indicates that approximately 89.0% of current Amgen price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
Correlation Coefficient-0.89
Spearman Rank Test-0.92
Residual Average0.0
Price Variance17.78

Amgen Inc lagged returns against current returns

Autocorrelation, which is Amgen stock's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting Amgen's stock expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of Amgen returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that Amgen stock has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the stock is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the stock movement to match the lagging time series.
 Current and Lagged Values 
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Amgen regressed lagged prices vs. current prices

Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If Amgen stock is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if Amgen stock is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in Amgen stock over time.
 Current vs Lagged Prices 
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      Timeline 

Amgen Lagged Returns

When evaluating Amgen's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of Amgen stock have on its future price. Amgen autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, Amgen autocorrelation shows the relationship between Amgen stock current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in Amgen Inc.
 Regressed Prices 
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      Timeline 

Amgen Investors Sentiment

The influence of Amgen's investor sentiment on the probability of its price appreciation or decline could be a good factor in your decision-making process regarding taking a position in Amgen. The overall investor sentiment generally increases the direction of a stock movement in a one-year investment horizon. However, the impact of investor sentiment on the entire stock markets does not have a solid backing from leading economists and market statisticians.

Amgen Implied Volatility

    
  49.97  
Amgen's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Amgen Inc stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Amgen's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Amgen stock will not fluctuate a lot when Amgen's options are near their expiration.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Amgen in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Amgen's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Amgen options trading.

Current Sentiment - AMGN

Amgen Inc Investor Sentiment

Majority of Macroaxis users are presently bullish on Amgen Inc. What is your sentiment towards investing in Amgen Inc? Are you bullish or bearish?
Bullish
Bearish
98% Bullish
2% Bearish
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Pair Trading with Amgen

One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if Amgen position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in Amgen will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.

Amgen Pair Correlation

Correlation Analysis For Direct Indexing and Tax-loss Harvesting

The ability to find closely correlated positions to Amgen could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace Amgen when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back Amgen - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling Amgen Inc to buy it.
The correlation of Amgen is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other equities. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as Amgen moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if Amgen Inc moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for Amgen can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.
Pair CorrelationCorrelation Matching
Please continue to Amgen Hype Analysis, Amgen Correlation, Amgen Valuation, Amgen Volatility, as well as analyze Amgen Alpha and Beta and Amgen Performance. Note that the Amgen Inc information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Amgen's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try Performance Analysis module to check effects of mean-variance optimization against your current asset allocation.

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When running Amgen Inc price analysis, check to measure Amgen's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Amgen is operating at the current time. Most of Amgen's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Amgen's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Amgen's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Amgen to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Amgen technical stock analysis exercises models and trading practices based on price and volume transformations, such as the moving averages, relative strength index, regressions, price and return correlations, business cycles, stock market cycles, or different charting patterns.
A focus of Amgen technical analysis is to determine if market prices reflect all relevant information impacting that market. A technical analyst looks at the history of Amgen trading pattern rather than external drivers such as economic, fundamental, or social events. It is believed that price action tends to repeat itself due to investors' collective, patterned behavior. Hence technical analysis focuses on identifiable price trends and conditions. More Info...