Amazon Stock Market Value

AMZN -  USA Stock  

USD 3,409  109.16  3.31%

Amazon's market value is the price at which a share of Amazon stock trades on a public exchange. It measures the collective expectations of Amazon Inc investors about the entity's future performance. With this module, you can estimate the performance of a buy and hold strategy of Amazon Inc and determine expected loss or profit from investing in Amazon over a given investment horizon. Please continue to Amazon Hype Analysis, Amazon Correlation, Amazon Valuation, Amazon Volatility, as well as analyze Amazon Alpha and Beta and Amazon Performance.
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Backtest


The market value of Amazon Inc is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Amazon that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Amazon's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Amazon's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Amazon's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Amazon Inc underlying business (such as pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Amazon's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Amazon value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Amazon's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.

Amazon 'What if' Analysis

In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to Amazon's stock what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of Amazon.
0.00
04/20/2021
No Change 0.00  0.0 
In 5 months and 29 days
10/17/2021
0.00
If you would invest  0.00  in Amazon on April 20, 2021 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding Amazon Inc or generate 0.0% return on investment in Amazon over 180 days. Amazon is related to or competes with Mercadolibre, Farfetch, Mogu Inc, EBay, and Natural Hlth. Amazon.com, Inc. engages in the retail sale of consumer products and subscriptions in North America and internationally

Amazon Upside/Downside Indicators

Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure Amazon's stock current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess Amazon Inc upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.

Amazon Market Risk Indicators

Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for Amazon's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as Amazon's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use Amazon historical prices to predict the future Amazon's volatility.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Amazon's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Amazon in the context of predictive analytics.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimated ValueHigh
3,4063,4073,750
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
3,0683,7973,798
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNext ValueHigh
3,5353,5373,538
Details
31 Analysts
Consensus
LowTarget PriceHigh
3,7204,1675,000
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Amazon. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Amazon's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Amazon's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in Amazon Inc.

Amazon Inc Backtested Returns

Amazon Inc secures Sharpe Ratio (or Efficiency) of -0.0345, which signifies that the company had -0.0345% of return per unit of standard deviation over the last 3 months. Macroaxis philosophy in foreseeing the risk of any stock is to look at both systematic and unsystematic factors of the business, including all available market data and technical indicators. Amazon Inc exposes twenty-eight different technical indicators, which can help you to evaluate volatility that cannot be diversified away. Please be advised to confirm Amazon Inc risk adjusted performance of (0.04032), and Mean Deviation of 0.9802 to double-check the risk estimate we provide.
The firm shows a Beta (market volatility) of 0.919, which signifies possible diversification benefits within a given portfolio. Let's try to break down what Amazon's beta means in this case. Amazon returns are very sensitive to returns on the market. As the market goes up or down, Amazon is expected to follow. Even though it is essential to pay attention to Amazon Inc historical returns, it is always good to be careful when utilizing equity current trending patterns. Our philosophy in foreseeing any stock's future performance is to check both, its past performance charts as well as the business as a whole, including all available technical indicators. Amazon Inc exposes twenty-eight different technical indicators, which can help you to evaluate its performance. Amazon Inc has an expected return of -0.0511%. Please be advised to confirm Amazon Inc coefficient of variation, semi variance, price action indicator, as well as the relationship between the treynor ratio and daily balance of power to decide if Amazon Inc performance from the past will be repeated at some point in the near future.
AdviceVolatility TrendExposureCorrelations

Auto-correlation

    
  (0.13)   

Insignificant reverse predictability

Amazon Inc has insignificant reverse predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between Amazon time series from 20th of April 2021 to 19th of July 2021 and 19th of July 2021 to 17th of October 2021. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of Amazon Inc price movement. The serial correlation of -0.13 indicates that less than 13.0% of current Amazon price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices. Given that Amazon Inc has negative autocorrelation for selected time horizon, investors may consider taking a contrarian position regarding future price movement of Amazon for similar time interval.
Correlation Coefficient-0.13
Spearman Rank Test-0.28
Residual Average0.0
Price Variance16139.73

Amazon Inc lagged returns against current returns

Autocorrelation, which is Amazon stock's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting Amazon's stock expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of Amazon returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that Amazon stock has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the stock is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the stock movement to match the lagging time series.
 Current and Lagged Values 
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      Timeline 

Amazon regressed lagged prices vs. current prices

Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If Amazon stock is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if Amazon stock is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in Amazon stock over time.
 Current vs Lagged Prices 
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      Timeline 

Amazon Lagged Returns

When evaluating Amazon's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of Amazon stock have on its future price. Amazon autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, Amazon autocorrelation shows the relationship between Amazon stock current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in Amazon Inc.
 Regressed Prices 
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      Timeline 

Amazon Investors Sentiment

The influence of Amazon's investor sentiment on the probability of its price appreciation or decline could be a good factor in your decision-making process regarding taking a position in Amazon. The overall investor sentiment generally increases the direction of a stock movement in a one-year investment horizon. However, the impact of investor sentiment on the entire stock markets does not have a solid backing from leading economists and market statisticians.

Current Sentiment - AMZN

Amazon Inc Investor Sentiment

Majority of Macroaxis users are presently bullish on Amazon Inc. What is your sentiment towards investing in Amazon Inc? Are you bullish or bearish?
Bullish
Bearish
98% Bullish
2% Bearish
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Pair Trading with Amazon

One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if Amazon position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in Amazon will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.

Amazon Pair Correlation

Equities Pair Trading Analysis

Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for Amazon and Mercadolibre. Pair trading can be used as a hedging technique within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate better risk-adjusted return
Run Pair Correlation  
Please continue to Amazon Hype Analysis, Amazon Correlation, Amazon Valuation, Amazon Volatility, as well as analyze Amazon Alpha and Beta and Amazon Performance. Note that the Amazon Inc information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Amazon's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try Content Syndication module to quickly integrate customizable finance content to your own investment portal.

Complementary Tools for Amazon Stock analysis

When running Amazon Inc price analysis, check to measure Amazon's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Amazon is operating at the current time. Most of Amazon's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Amazon's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Amazon's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Amazon to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Amazon technical stock analysis exercises models and trading practices based on price and volume transformations, such as the moving averages, relative strength index, regressions, price and return correlations, business cycles, stock market cycles, or different charting patterns.
A focus of Amazon technical analysis is to determine if market prices reflect all relevant information impacting that market. A technical analyst looks at the history of Amazon trading pattern rather than external drivers such as economic, fundamental, or social events. It is believed that price action tends to repeat itself due to investors' collective, patterned behavior. Hence technical analysis focuses on identifiable price trends and conditions. More Info...