Short Duration Inflation Fund Market Value
| APOGX Fund | USD 10.14 0.01 0.1% |
| Symbol | Short |
Short Duration 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to Short Duration's mutual fund what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of Short Duration.
| 03/20/2024 |
| 04/19/2024 |
If you would invest 0.00 in Short Duration on March 20, 2024 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding Short Duration Inflation or generate 0.0% return on investment in Short Duration over 30 days. Short Duration is related to or competes with Mid Cap, Equity Growth, Income Growth, Diversified Bond, Emerging Markets, Short Term, and Value Fund. The fund normally invests at least 80 percent of its net assets in inflation-linked debt securities More
Short Duration Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure Short Duration's mutual fund current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess Short Duration Inflation upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Downside Deviation | 0.2128 | |||
| Information Ratio | (0.37) | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 0.8876 | |||
| Value At Risk | (0.29) | |||
| Potential Upside | 0.2962 |
Short Duration Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for Short Duration's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as Short Duration's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use Short Duration historical prices to predict the future Short Duration's volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | (0.01) | |||
| Jensen Alpha | (0.01) | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | (0.02) | |||
| Sortino Ratio | (0.31) | |||
| Treynor Ratio | (0.09) |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Short Duration's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Short Duration Inflation Backtested Returns
We consider Short Duration very steady. Short Duration Inflation owns Efficiency Ratio (i.e., Sharpe Ratio) of 0.0276, which indicates the fund had a 0.0276% return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. We have found twenty-seven technical indicators for Short Duration Inflation, which you can use to evaluate the volatility of the fund. Please validate Short Duration's Risk Adjusted Performance of (0.01), semi deviation of 0.1548, and Coefficient Of Variation of 5587.11 to confirm if the risk estimate we provide is consistent with the expected return of 0.0049%. The entity has a beta of 0.0779, which indicates not very significant fluctuations relative to the market. As returns on the market increase, Short Duration's returns are expected to increase less than the market. However, during the bear market, the loss of holding Short Duration is expected to be smaller as well.
Auto-correlation | -0.03 |
Very weak reverse predictability
Short Duration Inflation has very weak reverse predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between Short Duration time series from 20th of March 2024 to 4th of April 2024 and 4th of April 2024 to 19th of April 2024. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of Short Duration Inflation price movement. The serial correlation of -0.03 indicates that only 3.0% of current Short Duration price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | -0.03 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | -0.22 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 0.0 |
Short Duration Inflation lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is Short Duration mutual fund's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting Short Duration's mutual fund expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of Short Duration returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that Short Duration has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the mutual fund is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
Short Duration regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If Short Duration mutual fund is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if Short Duration mutual fund is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in Short Duration mutual fund over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
Short Duration Lagged Returns
When evaluating Short Duration's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of Short Duration mutual fund have on its future price. Short Duration autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, Short Duration autocorrelation shows the relationship between Short Duration mutual fund current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in Short Duration Inflation.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
Pair Trading with Short Duration
One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if Short Duration position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in Short Duration will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.Moving together with Short Mutual Fund
| 0.78 | AMDVX | Mid Cap Value | PairCorr |
| 0.61 | AMEIX | Equity Growth | PairCorr |
| 0.72 | AMGIX | Income Growth | PairCorr |
The ability to find closely correlated positions to Short Duration could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace Short Duration when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back Short Duration - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling Short Duration Inflation to buy it.
The correlation of Short Duration is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other instruments. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as Short Duration moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if Short Duration Inflation moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for Short Duration can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.Check out Short Duration Correlation, Short Duration Volatility and Short Duration Alpha and Beta module to complement your research on Short Duration. Note that the Short Duration Inflation information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Short Duration's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try the Price Transformation module to use Price Transformation models to analyze the depth of different equity instruments across global markets.
Short Duration technical mutual fund analysis exercises models and trading practices based on price and volume transformations, such as the moving averages, relative strength index, regressions, price and return correlations, business cycles, fund market cycles, or different charting patterns.