Astra International (Indonesia) Market Value
| ASII Stock | IDR 4,450 30.00 0.68% |
| Symbol | Astra |
Astra International 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to Astra International's stock what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of Astra International.
| 05/16/2024 |
| 06/15/2024 |
If you would invest 0.00 in Astra International on May 16, 2024 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding Astra International Tbk or generate 0.0% return on investment in Astra International over 30 days. Astra International is related to or competes with MAP Aktif, Prodia Widyahusada, and Kino Indonesia. PT Astra International Tbk, together with its subsidiaries, operates in the automotive, financial services, heavy equipm... More
Astra International Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure Astra International's stock current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess Astra International Tbk upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Information Ratio | (0.04) | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 8.44 | |||
| Value At Risk | (3.32) | |||
| Potential Upside | 2.49 |
Astra International Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for Astra International's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as Astra International's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use Astra International historical prices to predict the future Astra International's volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | (0.02) | |||
| Jensen Alpha | (0.08) | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | (0.04) | |||
| Treynor Ratio | (0.54) |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Astra International's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Astra International Tbk Backtested Returns
Astra International Tbk secures Sharpe Ratio (or Efficiency) of -0.0502, which signifies that the company had a -0.0502% return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. Astra International Tbk exposes twenty-four different technical indicators, which can help you to evaluate volatility embedded in its price movement. Please confirm Astra International's Mean Deviation of 1.37, standard deviation of 1.75, and Risk Adjusted Performance of (0.02) to double-check the risk estimate we provide. The firm shows a Beta (market volatility) of 0.14, which signifies not very significant fluctuations relative to the market. As returns on the market increase, Astra International's returns are expected to increase less than the market. However, during the bear market, the loss of holding Astra International is expected to be smaller as well. At this point, Astra International Tbk has a negative expected return of -0.0932%. Please make sure to confirm Astra International's potential upside, kurtosis, and the relationship between the value at risk and skewness , to decide if Astra International Tbk performance from the past will be repeated at some point in the near future.
Auto-correlation | 0.39 |
Below average predictability
Astra International Tbk has below average predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between Astra International time series from 16th of May 2024 to 31st of May 2024 and 31st of May 2024 to 15th of June 2024. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of Astra International Tbk price movement. The serial correlation of 0.39 indicates that just about 39.0% of current Astra International price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | 0.39 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | 0.16 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 10.6 K |
Astra International Tbk lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is Astra International stock's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting Astra International's stock expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of Astra International returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that Astra International has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the stock is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
Astra International regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If Astra International stock is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if Astra International stock is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in Astra International stock over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
Astra International Lagged Returns
When evaluating Astra International's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of Astra International stock have on its future price. Astra International autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, Astra International autocorrelation shows the relationship between Astra International stock current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in Astra International Tbk.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
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Other Information on Investing in Astra Stock
Astra International financial ratios help investors to determine whether Astra Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Astra with respect to the benefits of owning Astra International security.