American States Water Stock Market Value
| AWR Stock | USD 70.18 1.21 1.75% |
| Symbol | American |
American States Water Price To Book Ratio
Is American States' industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of American States. If investors know American will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about American States listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.095 | Dividend Share 1.655 | Earnings Share 3.36 | Revenue Per Share 16.11 | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0) |
The market value of American States Water is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of American that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of American States' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is American States' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because American States' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect American States' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between American States' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if American States is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, American States' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.
American States 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to American States' stock what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of American States.
| 05/06/2022 |
| 04/25/2024 |
If you would invest 0.00 in American States on May 6, 2022 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding American States Water or generate 0.0% return on investment in American States over 720 days. American States is related to or competes with Middlesex Water, York Water, Artesian Resources, and American Water. American States Water Company, through its subsidiaries, provides water and electric services to residential, commercial... More
American States Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure American States' stock current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess American States Water upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Information Ratio | (0.15) | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 6.05 | |||
| Value At Risk | (2.48) | |||
| Potential Upside | 1.92 |
American States Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for American States' investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as American States' standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use American States historical prices to predict the future American States' volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | (0.05) | |||
| Jensen Alpha | (0.12) | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | (0.30) | |||
| Treynor Ratio | 1.18 |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of American States' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
American States Water Backtested Returns
American States Water secures Sharpe Ratio (or Efficiency) of -0.0588, which signifies that the company had a -0.0588% return per unit of standard deviation over the last 3 months. American States Water exposes twenty-three different technical indicators, which can help you to evaluate volatility embedded in its price movement. Please confirm American States' risk adjusted performance of (0.05), and Mean Deviation of 1.08 to double-check the risk estimate we provide. The firm shows a Beta (market volatility) of -0.11, which signifies not very significant fluctuations relative to the market. As returns on the market increase, returns on owning American States are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During the bear market, American States is likely to outperform the market. American States Water has an expected return of -0.0789%. Please make sure to confirm American States Water total risk alpha, as well as the relationship between the skewness and day median price , to decide if American States Water performance from the past will be repeated at some point in the near future.
Auto-correlation | -0.52 |
Good reverse predictability
American States Water has good reverse predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between American States time series from 6th of May 2022 to 1st of May 2023 and 1st of May 2023 to 25th of April 2024. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of American States Water price movement. The serial correlation of -0.52 indicates that about 52.0% of current American States price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | -0.52 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | -0.68 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 34.94 |
American States Water lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is American States stock's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting American States' stock expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of American States returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that American States has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the stock is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
American States regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If American States stock is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if American States stock is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in American States stock over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
American States Lagged Returns
When evaluating American States' market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of American States stock have on its future price. American States autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, American States autocorrelation shows the relationship between American States stock current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in American States Water.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
American States Investors Sentiment
The influence of American States' investor sentiment on the probability of its price appreciation or decline could be a good factor in your decision-making process regarding taking a position in American. The overall investor sentiment generally increases the direction of a stock movement in a one-year investment horizon. However, the impact of investor sentiment on the entire stock market does not have solid backing from leading economists and market statisticians.
Investor biases related to American States' public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in American. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding American can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around American States Water. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
American States' market sentiment shows the aggregated news analyzed to detect positive and negative mentions from the text and comments. The data is normalized to provide daily scores for American States' and other traded tickers. The bigger the bubble, the more accurate is the estimated score. Higher bars for a given day show more participation in the average American States' news discussions. The higher the estimated score, the more favorable is the investor's outlook on American States.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards American States in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, American States' short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from American States options trading.
Pair Trading with American States
One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if American States position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in American States will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.Moving together with American Stock
| 0.72 | AWK | American Water Works Earnings Call This Week | PairCorr |
Moving against American Stock
| 0.87 | VIVHY | Vivendi SA PK Earnings Call This Week | PairCorr |
| 0.84 | ARIS | Aris Water Solutions Financial Report 13th of May 2024 | PairCorr |
| 0.81 | D | Dominion Energy Earnings Call This Week | PairCorr |
| 0.77 | NI | NiSource Financial Report 1st of May 2024 | PairCorr |
| 0.69 | ES | Eversource Energy Earnings Call This Week | PairCorr |
The ability to find closely correlated positions to American States could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace American States when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back American States - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling American States Water to buy it.
The correlation of American States is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other instruments. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as American States moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if American States Water moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for American States can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.Check out American States Correlation, American States Volatility and American States Alpha and Beta module to complement your research on American States. You can also try the AI Investment Finder module to use AI to screen and filter profitable investment opportunities.
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When running American States' price analysis, check to measure American States' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy American States is operating at the current time. Most of American States' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of American States' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move American States' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of American States to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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