American Axle Manufacturing Stock Market Value

AXL Stock  USD 7.38  0.33  4.68%   
American Axle's market value is the price at which a share of American Axle trades on a public exchange. It measures the collective expectations of American Axle Manufacturing investors about its performance. American Axle is selling for 7.38 as of the 28th of March 2024. This is a 4.68% increase since the beginning of the trading day. The stock's lowest day price was 7.04.
With this module, you can estimate the performance of a buy and hold strategy of American Axle Manufacturing and determine expected loss or profit from investing in American Axle over a given investment horizon. Check out American Axle Correlation, American Axle Volatility and American Axle Alpha and Beta module to complement your research on American Axle.
Symbol

American Axle Manufa Price To Book Ratio

Is American Axle's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of American Axle. If investors know American will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about American Axle listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth
(0.65)
Earnings Share
(0.29)
Revenue Per Share
52.14
Quarterly Revenue Growth
0.05
Return On Assets
0.0198
The market value of American Axle Manufa is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of American that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of American Axle's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is American Axle's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because American Axle's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect American Axle's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between American Axle's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if American Axle is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, American Axle's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.

American Axle 'What if' Analysis

In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to American Axle's stock what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of American Axle.
0.00
04/03/2023
No Change 0.00  0.0 
In 11 months and 27 days
03/28/2024
0.00
If you would invest  0.00  in American Axle on April 3, 2023 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding American Axle Manufacturing or generate 0.0% return on investment in American Axle over 360 days. American Axle is related to or competes with Ford, GM, Goodyear Tire, Li AutoInc, Toyota, and Dorman Products. American Axle Manufacturing Holdings, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, designs, engineers, and manufactures driveli... More

American Axle Upside/Downside Indicators

Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure American Axle's stock current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess American Axle Manufacturing upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.

American Axle Market Risk Indicators

Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for American Axle's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as American Axle's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use American Axle historical prices to predict the future American Axle's volatility.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of American Axle's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
4.527.3410.16
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
5.097.9110.73
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNextHigh
4.897.7110.53
Details
10 Analysts
Consensus
LowTargetHigh
7.848.619.56
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as American Axle. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against American Axle's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, American Axle's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in American Axle Manufa.

American Axle Manufa Backtested Returns

American Axle Manufa secures Sharpe Ratio (or Efficiency) of -0.0888, which signifies that the company had a -0.0888% return per unit of standard deviation over the last 3 months. American Axle Manufacturing exposes twenty-three different technical indicators, which can help you to evaluate volatility embedded in its price movement. Please confirm American Axle's risk adjusted performance of (0.04), and Mean Deviation of 1.99 to double-check the risk estimate we provide. The firm shows a Beta (market volatility) of 3.02, which signifies a somewhat significant risk relative to the market. As the market goes up, the company is expected to outperform it. However, if the market returns are negative, American Axle will likely underperform. American Axle Manufa has an expected return of -0.25%. Please make sure to confirm American Axle Manufa total risk alpha, as well as the relationship between the skewness and day median price , to decide if American Axle Manufa performance from the past will be repeated at some point in the near future.

Auto-correlation

    
  0.56  

Modest predictability

American Axle Manufacturing has modest predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between American Axle time series from 3rd of April 2023 to 30th of September 2023 and 30th of September 2023 to 28th of March 2024. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of American Axle Manufa price movement. The serial correlation of 0.56 indicates that roughly 56.0% of current American Axle price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
Correlation Coefficient0.56
Spearman Rank Test-0.19
Residual Average0.0
Price Variance0.45

American Axle Manufa lagged returns against current returns

Autocorrelation, which is American Axle stock's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting American Axle's stock expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of American Axle returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that American Axle has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the stock is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
   Current and Lagged Values   
       Timeline  

American Axle regressed lagged prices vs. current prices

Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If American Axle stock is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if American Axle stock is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in American Axle stock over time.
   Current vs Lagged Prices   
       Timeline  

American Axle Lagged Returns

When evaluating American Axle's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of American Axle stock have on its future price. American Axle autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, American Axle autocorrelation shows the relationship between American Axle stock current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in American Axle Manufacturing.
   Regressed Prices   
       Timeline  

Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards American Axle in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, American Axle's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from American Axle options trading.

Pair Trading with American Axle

One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if American Axle position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in American Axle will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.

Moving against American Stock

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The ability to find closely correlated positions to American Axle could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace American Axle when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back American Axle - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling American Axle Manufacturing to buy it.
The correlation of American Axle is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other instruments. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as American Axle moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if American Axle Manufa moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for American Axle can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.
Pair CorrelationCorrelation Matching
When determining whether American Axle Manufa is a strong investment it is important to analyze American Axle's competitive position within its industry, examining market share, product or service uniqueness, and competitive advantages. Beyond financials and market position, potential investors should also consider broader economic conditions, industry trends, and any regulatory or geopolitical factors that may impact American Axle's future performance. For an informed investment choice regarding American Stock, refer to the following important reports:
Check out American Axle Correlation, American Axle Volatility and American Axle Alpha and Beta module to complement your research on American Axle.
You can also try the Instant Ratings module to determine any equity ratings based on digital recommendations. Macroaxis instant equity ratings are based on combination of fundamental analysis and risk-adjusted market performance.

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American Axle technical stock analysis exercises models and trading practices based on price and volume transformations, such as the moving averages, relative strength index, regressions, price and return correlations, business cycles, stock market cycles, or different charting patterns.
A focus of American Axle technical analysis is to determine if market prices reflect all relevant information impacting that market. A technical analyst looks at the history of American Axle trading pattern rather than external drivers such as economic, fundamental, or social events. It is believed that price action tends to repeat itself due to investors' collective, patterned behavior. Hence technical analysis focuses on identifiable price trends and conditions. More Info...