American Express (Brazil) Market Value
| AXPB34 Stock | BRL 120.26 0.76 0.64% |
| Symbol | American |
American Express 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to American Express' stock what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of American Express.
| 03/24/2024 |
| 04/23/2024 |
If you would invest 0.00 in American Express on March 24, 2024 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding American Express or generate 0.0% return on investment in American Express over 30 days. American Express is related to or competes with MAHLE Metal, Metalrgica Riosulense, Fidelity National, Southwest Airlines, Cognizant Technology, Metalurgica Gerdau, and Paycom Software. American Express Company, together with its subsidiaries, provides charge and credit payment card products, and travel-r... More
American Express Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure American Express' stock current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess American Express upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Downside Deviation | 1.08 | |||
| Information Ratio | 0.2563 | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 9.56 | |||
| Value At Risk | (1.16) | |||
| Potential Upside | 2.86 |
American Express Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for American Express' investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as American Express' standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use American Express historical prices to predict the future American Express' volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | 0.1976 | |||
| Jensen Alpha | 0.4191 | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | 0.2748 | |||
| Sortino Ratio | 0.3557 | |||
| Treynor Ratio | 0.861 |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of American Express' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
American Express Backtested Returns
American Express appears to be very steady, given 3 months investment horizon. American Express secures Sharpe Ratio (or Efficiency) of 0.3, which signifies that the company had a 0.3% return per unit of standard deviation over the last 3 months. We have found twenty-nine technical indicators for American Express, which you can use to evaluate the volatility of the firm. Please makes use of American Express' mean deviation of 1.06, and Risk Adjusted Performance of 0.1976 to double-check if our risk estimates are consistent with your expectations. On a scale of 0 to 100, American Express holds a performance score of 23. The firm shows a Beta (market volatility) of 0.53, which signifies possible diversification benefits within a given portfolio. As returns on the market increase, American Express' returns are expected to increase less than the market. However, during the bear market, the loss of holding American Express is expected to be smaller as well. Please check American Express' mean deviation, downside deviation, standard deviation, as well as the relationship between the semi deviation and coefficient of variation , to make a quick decision on whether American Express' price patterns will revert.
Auto-correlation | -0.14 |
Insignificant reverse predictability
American Express has insignificant reverse predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between American Express time series from 24th of March 2024 to 8th of April 2024 and 8th of April 2024 to 23rd of April 2024. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of American Express price movement. The serial correlation of -0.14 indicates that less than 14.0% of current American Express price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | -0.14 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | -0.18 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 7.25 |
American Express lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is American Express stock's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting American Express' stock expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of American Express returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that American Express has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the stock is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
American Express regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If American Express stock is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if American Express stock is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in American Express stock over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
American Express Lagged Returns
When evaluating American Express' market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of American Express stock have on its future price. American Express autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, American Express autocorrelation shows the relationship between American Express stock current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in American Express.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
Pair Trading with American Express
One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if American Express position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in American Express will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.Moving together with American Stock
| 0.87 | VISA34 | Visa Inc | PairCorr |
| 0.94 | MSCD34 | Mastercard Incorporated | PairCorr |
| 0.72 | CAON34 | Capital One Financial | PairCorr |
Moving against American Stock
| 0.94 | VIVR3 | Viver Incorporadora | PairCorr |
| 0.81 | PMAM3 | Paranapanema SA | PairCorr |
| 0.65 | CSNA3 | Companhia Siderrgica | PairCorr |
The ability to find closely correlated positions to American Express could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace American Express when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back American Express - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling American Express to buy it.
The correlation of American Express is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other instruments. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as American Express moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if American Express moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for American Express can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.Check out American Express Correlation, American Express Volatility and American Express Alpha and Beta module to complement your research on American Express. For information on how to trade American Stock refer to our How to Trade American Stock guide.Note that the American Express information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other American Express' statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try the Portfolio Optimization module to compute new portfolio that will generate highest expected return given your specified tolerance for risk.
Complementary Tools for American Stock analysis
When running American Express' price analysis, check to measure American Express' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy American Express is operating at the current time. Most of American Express' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of American Express' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move American Express' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of American Express to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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American Express technical stock analysis exercises models and trading practices based on price and volume transformations, such as the moving averages, relative strength index, regressions, price and return correlations, business cycles, stock market cycles, or different charting patterns.