California High Yield Municipal Fund Market Value
| BCHIX Fund | USD 9.62 0.02 0.21% |
| Symbol | California |
California High 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to California High's mutual fund what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of California High.
| 04/01/2024 |
| 05/01/2024 |
If you would invest 0.00 in California High on April 1, 2024 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding California High Yield Municipal or generate 0.0% return on investment in California High over 30 days. California High is related to or competes with Mid Cap, Equity Growth, Income Growth, Diversified Bond, Emerging Markets, Short Term, and Value Fund. The fund invests at least 80 percent of its net assets in municipal securities with income payments exempt from federal ... More
California High Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure California High's mutual fund current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess California High Yield Municipal upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Downside Deviation | 0.3045 | |||
| Information Ratio | (0.25) | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 1.34 | |||
| Value At Risk | (0.31) | |||
| Potential Upside | 0.4111 |
California High Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for California High's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as California High's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use California High historical prices to predict the future California High's volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | (0) | |||
| Jensen Alpha | (0) | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | (0.02) | |||
| Sortino Ratio | (0.18) | |||
| Treynor Ratio | 0.2778 |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of California High's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
California High Yield Backtested Returns
California High Yield secures Sharpe Ratio (or Efficiency) of -0.12, which signifies that the fund had a -0.12% return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. California High Yield Municipal exposes twenty-eight different technical indicators, which can help you to evaluate volatility embedded in its price movement. Please confirm California High's Risk Adjusted Performance of (0), downside deviation of 0.3045, and Mean Deviation of 0.1406 to double-check the risk estimate we provide. The fund shows a Beta (market volatility) of -0.0181, which signifies not very significant fluctuations relative to the market. As returns on the market increase, returns on owning California High are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During the bear market, California High is likely to outperform the market.
Auto-correlation | 0.53 |
Modest predictability
California High Yield Municipal has modest predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between California High time series from 1st of April 2024 to 16th of April 2024 and 16th of April 2024 to 1st of May 2024. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of California High Yield price movement. The serial correlation of 0.53 indicates that about 53.0% of current California High price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | 0.53 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | 0.18 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 0.0 |
California High Yield lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is California High mutual fund's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting California High's mutual fund expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of California High returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that California High has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the mutual fund is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
California High regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If California High mutual fund is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if California High mutual fund is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in California High mutual fund over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
California High Lagged Returns
When evaluating California High's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of California High mutual fund have on its future price. California High autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, California High autocorrelation shows the relationship between California High mutual fund current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in California High Yield Municipal.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards California High in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, California High's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from California High options trading.
Pair Trading with California High
One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if California High position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in California High will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.The ability to find closely correlated positions to California High could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace California High when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back California High - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling California High Yield Municipal to buy it.
The correlation of California High is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other instruments. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as California High moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if California High Yield moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for California High can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.Check out California High Correlation, California High Volatility and California High Alpha and Beta module to complement your research on California High. You can also try the Idea Breakdown module to analyze constituents of all Macroaxis ideas. Macroaxis investment ideas are predefined, sector-focused investing themes.
California High technical mutual fund analysis exercises models and trading practices based on price and volume transformations, such as the moving averages, relative strength index, regressions, price and return correlations, business cycles, fund market cycles, or different charting patterns.