The Short Term Fund Market Value
| CFSTX Fund | USD 16.16 0.01 0.06% |
| Symbol | THE |
The Short 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to The Short's mutual fund what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of The Short.
| 10/02/2022 |
| 09/21/2024 |
If you would invest 0.00 in The Short on October 2, 2022 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding The Short Term or generate 0.0% return on investment in The Short over 720 days. The Short is related to or competes with Lsv Small, William Blair, Vanguard Small, Perkins Small, Victory Integrity, Applied Finance, and Heartland Value. The fund normally invests at least 80 percent of its net assets plus any borrowings for investment purposes in securitie... More
The Short Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure The Short's mutual fund current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess The Short Term upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Downside Deviation | 0.0846 | |||
| Information Ratio | (1.01) | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 0.5008 | |||
| Value At Risk | (0.06) | |||
| Potential Upside | 0.1867 |
The Short Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for The Short's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as The Short's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use The Short historical prices to predict the future The Short's volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | 0.2633 | |||
| Jensen Alpha | 0.032 | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | 0.0148 | |||
| Sortino Ratio | (1.03) | |||
| Treynor Ratio | (0.62) |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of The Short's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Short Term Backtested Returns
At this stage we consider THE Mutual Fund to be very steady. Short Term owns Efficiency Ratio (i.e., Sharpe Ratio) of 0.42, which indicates the fund had a 0.42% return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. We have found twenty-six technical indicators for The Short Term, which you can use to evaluate the volatility of the fund. Please validate The Short's Standard Deviation of 0.0865, downside deviation of 0.0846, and Risk Adjusted Performance of 0.2633 to confirm if the risk estimate we provide is consistent with the expected return of 0.0368%. The entity has a beta of -0.0434, which indicates not very significant fluctuations relative to the market. As returns on the market increase, returns on owning the Short are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During the bear market, the Short is likely to outperform the market.
Auto-correlation | 0.82 |
Very good predictability
The Short Term has very good predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between The Short time series from 2nd of October 2022 to 27th of September 2023 and 27th of September 2023 to 21st of September 2024. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of Short Term price movement. The serial correlation of 0.82 indicates that around 82.0% of current The Short price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | 0.82 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | 0.75 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 0.08 |
Short Term lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is The Short mutual fund's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting The Short's mutual fund expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of The Short returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that The Short has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the mutual fund is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
The Short regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If The Short mutual fund is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if The Short mutual fund is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in The Short mutual fund over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
The Short Lagged Returns
When evaluating The Short's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of The Short mutual fund have on its future price. The Short autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, The Short autocorrelation shows the relationship between The Short mutual fund current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in The Short Term.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
Also Currently Popular
Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.Other Information on Investing in THE Mutual Fund
The Short financial ratios help investors to determine whether THE Mutual Fund is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in THE with respect to the benefits of owning The Short security.
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