Canadian Natural Resources Stock Market Value

CNQ Stock  CAD 105.31  0.53  0.50%   
Canadian Natural's market value is the price at which a share of Canadian Natural trades on a public exchange. It measures the collective expectations of Canadian Natural Resources investors about its performance. Canadian Natural is selling at 105.31 as of the 21st of April 2024; that is -0.5 percent down since the beginning of the trading day. The stock's open price was 105.84.
With this module, you can estimate the performance of a buy and hold strategy of Canadian Natural Resources and determine expected loss or profit from investing in Canadian Natural over a given investment horizon. Check out Canadian Natural Correlation, Canadian Natural Volatility and Canadian Natural Alpha and Beta module to complement your research on Canadian Natural.
Symbol

Canadian Natural Res Price To Book Ratio

Please note, there is a significant difference between Canadian Natural's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Canadian Natural is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Canadian Natural's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.

Canadian Natural 'What if' Analysis

In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to Canadian Natural's stock what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of Canadian Natural.
0.00
05/02/2022
No Change 0.00  0.0 
In 1 year 11 months and 22 days
04/21/2024
0.00
If you would invest  0.00  in Canadian Natural on May 2, 2022 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding Canadian Natural Resources or generate 0.0% return on investment in Canadian Natural over 720 days. Canadian Natural is related to or competes with Valeura Energy, and Rubellite Energy. Canadian Natural Resources Limited explores for, develops, produces, and markets crude oil, natural gas, and natural gas... More

Canadian Natural Upside/Downside Indicators

Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure Canadian Natural's stock current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess Canadian Natural Resources upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.

Canadian Natural Market Risk Indicators

Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for Canadian Natural's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as Canadian Natural's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use Canadian Natural historical prices to predict the future Canadian Natural's volatility.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Canadian Natural's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
103.90105.38106.86
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
94.78118.90120.38
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNextHigh
100.13101.61103.10
Details
Earnings
Estimates (0)
LowProjected EPSHigh
1.351.551.88
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Canadian Natural. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Canadian Natural's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Canadian Natural's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Canadian Natural Res.

Canadian Natural Res Backtested Returns

Canadian Natural appears to be very steady, given 3 months investment horizon. Canadian Natural Res secures Sharpe Ratio (or Efficiency) of 0.26, which signifies that the company had a 0.26% return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. We have found thirty technical indicators for Canadian Natural Resources, which you can use to evaluate the volatility of the firm. Please makes use of Canadian Natural's Mean Deviation of 1.09, downside deviation of 1.32, and Risk Adjusted Performance of 0.1521 to double-check if our risk estimates are consistent with your expectations. On a scale of 0 to 100, Canadian Natural holds a performance score of 19. The firm shows a Beta (market volatility) of 0.57, which signifies possible diversification benefits within a given portfolio. As returns on the market increase, Canadian Natural's returns are expected to increase less than the market. However, during the bear market, the loss of holding Canadian Natural is expected to be smaller as well. Please check Canadian Natural's sortino ratio, skewness, price action indicator, as well as the relationship between the potential upside and rate of daily change , to make a quick decision on whether Canadian Natural's price patterns will revert.

Auto-correlation

    
  0.46  

Average predictability

Canadian Natural Resources has average predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between Canadian Natural time series from 2nd of May 2022 to 27th of April 2023 and 27th of April 2023 to 21st of April 2024. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of Canadian Natural Res price movement. The serial correlation of 0.46 indicates that about 46.0% of current Canadian Natural price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
Correlation Coefficient0.46
Spearman Rank Test0.46
Residual Average0.0
Price Variance98.27

Canadian Natural Res lagged returns against current returns

Autocorrelation, which is Canadian Natural stock's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting Canadian Natural's stock expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of Canadian Natural returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that Canadian Natural has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the stock is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
   Current and Lagged Values   
       Timeline  

Canadian Natural regressed lagged prices vs. current prices

Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If Canadian Natural stock is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if Canadian Natural stock is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in Canadian Natural stock over time.
   Current vs Lagged Prices   
       Timeline  

Canadian Natural Lagged Returns

When evaluating Canadian Natural's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of Canadian Natural stock have on its future price. Canadian Natural autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, Canadian Natural autocorrelation shows the relationship between Canadian Natural stock current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in Canadian Natural Resources.
   Regressed Prices   
       Timeline  

Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Canadian Natural in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Canadian Natural's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Canadian Natural options trading.

Pair Trading with Canadian Natural

One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if Canadian Natural position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in Canadian Natural will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.

Moving together with Canadian Stock

  0.82ENB-PFC Enbridge Pref 11PairCorr
  0.77ENB-PFU Enbridge Pref LPairCorr
The ability to find closely correlated positions to Canadian Natural could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace Canadian Natural when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back Canadian Natural - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling Canadian Natural Resources to buy it.
The correlation of Canadian Natural is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other instruments. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as Canadian Natural moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if Canadian Natural Res moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for Canadian Natural can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.
Pair CorrelationCorrelation Matching
When determining whether Canadian Natural Res is a good investment, qualitative aspects like company management, corporate governance, and ethical practices play a significant role. A comparison with peer companies also provides context and helps to understand if Canadian Stock is undervalued or overvalued. This multi-faceted approach, blending both quantitative and qualitative analysis, forms a solid foundation for making an informed investment decision about Canadian Natural Resources Stock. Highlighted below are key reports to facilitate an investment decision about Canadian Natural Resources Stock:
Check out Canadian Natural Correlation, Canadian Natural Volatility and Canadian Natural Alpha and Beta module to complement your research on Canadian Natural.
You can also try the Odds Of Bankruptcy module to get analysis of equity chance of financial distress in the next 2 years.

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When running Canadian Natural's price analysis, check to measure Canadian Natural's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Canadian Natural is operating at the current time. Most of Canadian Natural's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Canadian Natural's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Canadian Natural's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Canadian Natural to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Canadian Natural technical stock analysis exercises models and trading practices based on price and volume transformations, such as the moving averages, relative strength index, regressions, price and return correlations, business cycles, stock market cycles, or different charting patterns.
A focus of Canadian Natural technical analysis is to determine if market prices reflect all relevant information impacting that market. A technical analyst looks at the history of Canadian Natural trading pattern rather than external drivers such as economic, fundamental, or social events. It is believed that price action tends to repeat itself due to investors' collective, patterned behavior. Hence technical analysis focuses on identifiable price trends and conditions. More Info...