ConocoPhillips Stock Market Value

COP
 Stock
  

USD 100.59  9.47  8.60%   

ConocoPhillips' market value is the price at which a share of ConocoPhillips stock trades on a public exchange. It measures the collective expectations of ConocoPhillips investors about the entity's future performance. With this module, you can estimate the performance of a buy and hold strategy of ConocoPhillips and determine expected loss or profit from investing in ConocoPhillips over a given investment horizon. Continue to ConocoPhillips Correlation, ConocoPhillips Volatility and ConocoPhillips Alpha and Beta module to complement your research on ConocoPhillips.
Symbol


Is ConocoPhillips' industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of ConocoPhillips. If investors know ConocoPhillips will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about ConocoPhillips listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
The market value of ConocoPhillips is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of ConocoPhillips that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of ConocoPhillips' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is ConocoPhillips' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because ConocoPhillips' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect ConocoPhillips' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between ConocoPhillips' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine ConocoPhillips value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, ConocoPhillips' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.

ConocoPhillips 'What if' Analysis

In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to ConocoPhillips' stock what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of ConocoPhillips.
0.00
10/05/2020
No Change 0.00  0.0 
In 1 year 11 months and 22 days
09/25/2022
0.00
If you would invest  0.00  in ConocoPhillips on October 5, 2020 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding ConocoPhillips or generate 0.0% return on investment in ConocoPhillips over 720 days. ConocoPhillips is related to or competes with Industrias Bachoco. ConocoPhillips explores for, produces, transports, and markets crude oil, bitumen, natural gas, liquefied natural gas , ... More

ConocoPhillips Upside/Downside Indicators

Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure ConocoPhillips' stock current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess ConocoPhillips upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.

ConocoPhillips Market Risk Indicators

Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for ConocoPhillips' investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as ConocoPhillips' standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use ConocoPhillips historical prices to predict the future ConocoPhillips' volatility.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of ConocoPhillips' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of ConocoPhillips in the context of predictive analytics.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimated ValueHigh
98.22100.80103.38
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
92.8195.39110.65
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNext ValueHigh
93.1795.7598.33
Details
13 Analysts
Consensus
LowTarget PriceHigh
77.0090.69100.00
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as ConocoPhillips. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against ConocoPhillips' peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, ConocoPhillips' competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in ConocoPhillips.

ConocoPhillips Backtested Returns

We consider ConocoPhillips very steady. ConocoPhillips secures Sharpe Ratio (or Efficiency) of 0.0672, which signifies that the company had 0.0672% of return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. Our standpoint towards foreseeing the volatility of a stock is to use all available market data together with stock-specific technical indicators that cannot be diversified away. We have found twenty-eight technical indicators for ConocoPhillips, which you can use to evaluate the future volatility of the firm. Please confirm ConocoPhillips Downside Deviation of 2.85, mean deviation of 2.15, and Risk Adjusted Performance of 0.0789 to double-check if the risk estimate we provide is consistent with the expected return of 0.17%.
ConocoPhillips has a performance score of 5 on a scale of 0 to 100. The firm shows a Beta (market volatility) of 0.7322, which signifies possible diversification benefits within a given portfolio. Let's try to break down what ConocoPhillips's beta means in this case. As returns on the market increase, ConocoPhillips returns are expected to increase less than the market. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding ConocoPhillips will be expected to be smaller as well. Although it is important to respect ConocoPhillips historical returns, it is better to be realistic regarding the information on the equity's current trending patterns. The philosophy towards foreseeing future performance of any stock is to evaluate the business as a whole together with its past performance, including all available fundamental and technical indicators. By analyzing ConocoPhillips technical indicators, you can presently evaluate if the expected return of 0.17% will be sustainable into the future. ConocoPhillips right now shows a risk of 2.58%. Please confirm ConocoPhillips semi variance, and the relationship between the treynor ratio and daily balance of power to decide if ConocoPhillips will be following its price patterns.

Auto-correlation

    
  0.82  

Very good predictability

ConocoPhillips has very good predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between ConocoPhillips time series from 5th of October 2020 to 30th of September 2021 and 30th of September 2021 to 25th of September 2022. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of ConocoPhillips price movement. The serial correlation of 0.82 indicates that around 82.0% of current ConocoPhillips price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
Correlation Coefficient0.82
Spearman Rank Test0.7
Residual Average0.0
Price Variance212.7

ConocoPhillips lagged returns against current returns

Autocorrelation, which is ConocoPhillips stock's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting ConocoPhillips' stock expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of ConocoPhillips returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that ConocoPhillips stock has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the stock is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the stock movement to match the lagging time series.
   Current and Lagged Values   
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ConocoPhillips regressed lagged prices vs. current prices

Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If ConocoPhillips stock is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if ConocoPhillips stock is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in ConocoPhillips stock over time.
   Current vs Lagged Prices   
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       Timeline  

ConocoPhillips Lagged Returns

When evaluating ConocoPhillips' market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of ConocoPhillips stock have on its future price. ConocoPhillips autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, ConocoPhillips autocorrelation shows the relationship between ConocoPhillips stock current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in ConocoPhillips.
   Regressed Prices   
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       Timeline  

Be your own money manager

Our tools can tell you how much better you can do entering a position in ConocoPhillips without increasing your portfolio risk or giving up the expected return. As an individual investor, you need to find a reliable way to track all your investment portfolios. However, your requirements will often be based on how much of the process you decide to do yourself. In addition to allowing all investors analytical transparency into all their portfolios, our tools can evaluate risk-adjusted returns of your individual positions relative to your overall portfolio.

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Pair Trading with ConocoPhillips

One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if ConocoPhillips position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in ConocoPhillips will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.

Moving together with ConocoPhillips

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Moving against ConocoPhillips

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The ability to find closely correlated positions to ConocoPhillips could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace ConocoPhillips when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back ConocoPhillips - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling ConocoPhillips to buy it.
The correlation of ConocoPhillips is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other equities. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as ConocoPhillips moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if ConocoPhillips moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for ConocoPhillips can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.
Pair CorrelationCorrelation Matching
Continue to ConocoPhillips Correlation, ConocoPhillips Volatility and ConocoPhillips Alpha and Beta module to complement your research on ConocoPhillips. You can also try Financial Widgets module to easily integrated Macroaxis content with over 30 different plug-and-play financial widgets.

Complementary Tools for analysis

When running ConocoPhillips price analysis, check to measure ConocoPhillips' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy ConocoPhillips is operating at the current time. Most of ConocoPhillips' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of ConocoPhillips' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move ConocoPhillips' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of ConocoPhillips to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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ConocoPhillips technical stock analysis exercises models and trading practices based on price and volume transformations, such as the moving averages, relative strength index, regressions, price and return correlations, business cycles, stock market cycles, or different charting patterns.
A focus of ConocoPhillips technical analysis is to determine if market prices reflect all relevant information impacting that market. A technical analyst looks at the history of ConocoPhillips trading pattern rather than external drivers such as economic, fundamental, or social events. It is believed that price action tends to repeat itself due to investors' collective, patterned behavior. Hence technical analysis focuses on identifiable price trends and conditions. More Info...