Polkadot Market Value

DOT Crypto  USD 6.57  0.01  0.15%   
Polkadot's market value is the price at which a share of Polkadot stock trades on a public exchange. It measures the collective expectations of Polkadot investors about the entity's future performance. With this module, you can estimate the performance of a buy and hold strategy of Polkadot and determine expected loss or profit from investing in Polkadot over a given investment horizon. Continue to Polkadot Correlation, Polkadot Volatility and Investing Opportunities module to complement your research on Polkadot.
Symbol


Please note, there is a significant difference between Polkadot's coin value and its market price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Cryptocurrency investors typically determine Polkadot value by looking at such factors as its true mass adoption, usability, application, safety as well as its ability to resist fraud and manipulation. On the other hand, Polkadot's price is the amount at which it trades on the cryptocurrency exchange or other digital marketplace that truly represents its supply and demand.

Polkadot 'What if' Analysis

In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to Polkadot's crypto coin what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of Polkadot.
0.00
12/29/2022
No Change 0.00  0.0 
In 31 days
01/28/2023
0.00
If you would invest  0.00  in Polkadot on December 29, 2022 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding Polkadot or generate 0.0% return on investment in Polkadot over 30 days. Polkadot is related to or competes with XRP, Aptos, Solana, Optimism, Polygon, OKB, and Staked Ether. Polkadot is peer-to-peer digital currency powered by the Blockchain technology.

Polkadot Upside/Downside Indicators

Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure Polkadot's crypto coin current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess Polkadot upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.

Polkadot Market Risk Indicators

Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for Polkadot's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as Polkadot's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use Polkadot historical prices to predict the future Polkadot's volatility.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Polkadot's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Polkadot in the context of predictive analytics.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimated ValueHigh
2.306.5810.86
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
0.855.139.41
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNext ValueHigh
2.056.3310.61
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowerMiddle BandUpper
5.916.216.51
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Polkadot. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Polkadot's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Polkadot's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in Polkadot.

Polkadot Backtested Returns

We consider Polkadot very risky. Polkadot maintains Sharpe Ratio (i.e., Efficiency) of 0.0274, which implies digital coin had 0.0274% of return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. Our standpoint towards forecasting the volatility of a crypto is to use all available market data together with crypto-specific technical indicators that cannot be diversified away. We have found twenty-one technical indicators for Polkadot, which you can use to evaluate the future volatility of coin. Please check Polkadot Coefficient Of Variation of 5714.04, semi deviation of 4.21, and Risk Adjusted Performance of 0.0269 to confirm if the risk estimate we provide is consistent with the expected return of 0.12%.
The crypto holds a Beta of 0.5726, which implies possible diversification benefits within a given portfolio. Let's try to break down what Polkadot's beta means in this case. As returns on the market increase, Polkadot returns are expected to increase less than the market. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Polkadot will be expected to be smaller as well. Although it is important to respect Polkadot current trending patterns, it is better to be realistic regarding the information on the equity's existing price patterns. The philosophy towards forecasting future performance of any crypto is to evaluate the business as a whole together with its past performance, including all available fundamental and technical indicators. By analyzing Polkadot technical indicators, you can presently evaluate if the expected return of 0.12% will be sustainable into the future.

Auto-correlation

    
  0.81  

Very good predictability

Polkadot has very good predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between Polkadot time series from 29th of December 2022 to 13th of January 2023 and 13th of January 2023 to 28th of January 2023. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of Polkadot price movement. The serial correlation of 0.81 indicates that around 81.0% of current Polkadot price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
Correlation Coefficient0.81
Spearman Rank Test0.82
Residual Average0.0
Price Variance0.09

Polkadot lagged returns against current returns

Autocorrelation, which is Polkadot crypto coin's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting Polkadot's crypto coin expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of Polkadot returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that Polkadot crypto coin has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the stock is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the stock movement to match the lagging time series.
   Current and Lagged Values   
       Timeline  

Polkadot regressed lagged prices vs. current prices

Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If Polkadot crypto coin is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if Polkadot crypto coin is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in Polkadot crypto coin over time.
   Current vs Lagged Prices   
       Timeline  

Polkadot Lagged Returns

When evaluating Polkadot's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of Polkadot crypto coin have on its future price. Polkadot autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, Polkadot autocorrelation shows the relationship between Polkadot crypto coin current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in Polkadot.
   Regressed Prices   
       Timeline  

Some cryptocurrency investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. However, unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Polkadot in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the crypto's market sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools provided by cryptocurrency exchanges to gauge market sentiment could be utilized to time the market in a somewhat predictable way.

Pair Trading with Polkadot

One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if Polkadot position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in Polkadot will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.

Moving together with Polkadot

+0.85XRPXRPPairCorr
+0.68APTAptosPairCorr
The ability to find closely correlated positions to Polkadot could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace Polkadot when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back Polkadot - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling Polkadot to buy it.
The correlation of Polkadot is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other equities. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as Polkadot moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if Polkadot moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for Polkadot can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.
Pair CorrelationCorrelation Matching
Continue to Polkadot Correlation, Polkadot Volatility and Investing Opportunities module to complement your research on Polkadot. You can also try Portfolio Backtesting module to avoid under-diversification and over-optimization by backtesting your portfolios.

Complementary Tools for analysis

When running Polkadot price analysis, check to measure Polkadot's coin volatility and technical momentum indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Polkadot is operating at the current time. Most of Polkadot's value examination focuses on studying past and present price actions to predict the probability of Polkadot's future price movements. You can analyze the coin against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Polkadot's coin price. Additionally, you may evaluate how adding Polkadot to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Polkadot technical crypto coin analysis exercises models and trading practices based on price and volume transformations, such as the moving averages, relative strength index, regressions, price and return correlations, business cycles, crypto market cycles, or different charting patterns.
A focus of Polkadot technical analysis is to determine if market prices reflect all relevant information impacting that market. A technical analyst looks at the history of Polkadot trading pattern rather than external drivers such as economic, fundamental, or social events. It is believed that price action tends to repeat itself due to investors' collective, patterned behavior. Hence technical analysis focuses on identifiable price trends and conditions. More Info...