First Citizens Bancshares Preferred Stock Market Value
| FCNCP Preferred Stock | USD 21.30 0.08 0.38% |
| Symbol | First |
First Citizens 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to First Citizens' preferred stock what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of First Citizens.
| 03/24/2024 |
| 04/23/2024 |
If you would invest 0.00 in First Citizens on March 24, 2024 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding First Citizens BancShares or generate 0.0% return on investment in First Citizens over 30 days. First Citizens is related to or competes with Citizens Financial, Capital One, Capital One, and Bank of America. First Citizens BancShares, Inc. operates as the holding company for First-Citizens Bank Trust Company that provides reta... More
First Citizens Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure First Citizens' preferred stock current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess First Citizens BancShares upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Downside Deviation | 1.35 | |||
| Information Ratio | (0.01) | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 5.43 | |||
| Value At Risk | (1.54) | |||
| Potential Upside | 1.6 |
First Citizens Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for First Citizens' investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as First Citizens' standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use First Citizens historical prices to predict the future First Citizens' volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | 0.0491 | |||
| Jensen Alpha | 0.0033 | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | (0.07) | |||
| Sortino Ratio | (0.01) | |||
| Treynor Ratio | 0.0833 |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of First Citizens' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
First Citizens BancShares Backtested Returns
We consider First Citizens very steady. First Citizens BancShares secures Sharpe Ratio (or Efficiency) of 0.0137, which denotes the company had a 0.0137% return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. We have found twenty-eight technical indicators for First Citizens BancShares, which you can use to evaluate the volatility of the firm. Please confirm First Citizens' Coefficient Of Variation of 1373.64, downside deviation of 1.35, and Mean Deviation of 0.7699 to check if the risk estimate we provide is consistent with the expected return of 0.0145%. First Citizens has a performance score of 1 on a scale of 0 to 100. The firm shows a Beta (market volatility) of 0.82, which means possible diversification benefits within a given portfolio. As returns on the market increase, First Citizens' returns are expected to increase less than the market. However, during the bear market, the loss of holding First Citizens is expected to be smaller as well. First Citizens BancShares right now shows a risk of 1.06%. Please confirm First Citizens BancShares value at risk, as well as the relationship between the skewness and day median price , to decide if First Citizens BancShares will be following its price patterns.
Auto-correlation | 0.57 |
Modest predictability
First Citizens BancShares has modest predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between First Citizens time series from 24th of March 2024 to 8th of April 2024 and 8th of April 2024 to 23rd of April 2024. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of First Citizens BancShares price movement. The serial correlation of 0.57 indicates that roughly 57.0% of current First Citizens price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | 0.57 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | 0.35 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 0.35 |
First Citizens BancShares lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is First Citizens preferred stock's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting First Citizens' preferred stock expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of First Citizens returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that First Citizens has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the preferred stock is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
First Citizens regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If First Citizens preferred stock is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if First Citizens preferred stock is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in First Citizens preferred stock over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
First Citizens Lagged Returns
When evaluating First Citizens' market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of First Citizens preferred stock have on its future price. First Citizens autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, First Citizens autocorrelation shows the relationship between First Citizens preferred stock current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in First Citizens BancShares.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards First Citizens in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, First Citizens' short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from First Citizens options trading.
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Try AI Portfolio ArchitectCheck out First Citizens Correlation, First Citizens Volatility and First Citizens Alpha and Beta module to complement your research on First Citizens. Note that the First Citizens BancShares information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other First Citizens' statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try the FinTech Suite module to use AI to screen and filter profitable investment opportunities.
Complementary Tools for First Preferred Stock analysis
When running First Citizens' price analysis, check to measure First Citizens' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy First Citizens is operating at the current time. Most of First Citizens' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of First Citizens' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move First Citizens' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of First Citizens to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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First Citizens technical preferred stock analysis exercises models and trading practices based on price and volume transformations, such as the moving averages, relative strength index, regressions, price and return correlations, business cycles, preferred stock market cycles, or different charting patterns.