Fidelity Series Modity Fund Market Value
| FCSSX Fund | USD 97.98 0.29 0.30% |
| Symbol | Fidelity |
Fidelity Series 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to Fidelity Series' mutual fund what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of Fidelity Series.
| 05/06/2022 |
| 04/25/2024 |
If you would invest 0.00 in Fidelity Series on May 6, 2022 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding Fidelity Series Modity or generate 0.0% return on investment in Fidelity Series over 720 days. Fidelity Series is related to or competes with Commodityrealreturn, and Pimco Commoditiesplus. The fund normally invests in commodity-linked derivative instruments, short-term investment-grade debt securities, cash,... More
Fidelity Series Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure Fidelity Series' mutual fund current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess Fidelity Series Modity upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Downside Deviation | 0.5001 | |||
| Information Ratio | 0.0355 | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 1.94 | |||
| Value At Risk | (0.85) | |||
| Potential Upside | 0.9208 |
Fidelity Series Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for Fidelity Series' investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as Fidelity Series' standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use Fidelity Series historical prices to predict the future Fidelity Series' volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | 0.133 | |||
| Jensen Alpha | 0.1005 | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | 0.0319 | |||
| Sortino Ratio | 0.0375 | |||
| Treynor Ratio | 2.47 |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Fidelity Series' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Fidelity Series Modity Backtested Returns
We consider Fidelity Series very steady. Fidelity Series Modity secures Sharpe Ratio (or Efficiency) of 0.15, which denotes the fund had a 0.15% return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. We have found twenty-eight technical indicators for Fidelity Series Modity, which you can use to evaluate the volatility of the entity. Please confirm Fidelity Series' Coefficient Of Variation of 462.38, mean deviation of 0.4208, and Downside Deviation of 0.5001 to check if the risk estimate we provide is consistent with the expected return of 0.08%. The fund shows a Beta (market volatility) of 0.0421, which means not very significant fluctuations relative to the market. As returns on the market increase, Fidelity Series' returns are expected to increase less than the market. However, during the bear market, the loss of holding Fidelity Series is expected to be smaller as well.
Auto-correlation | -0.38 |
Poor reverse predictability
Fidelity Series Modity has poor reverse predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between Fidelity Series time series from 6th of May 2022 to 1st of May 2023 and 1st of May 2023 to 25th of April 2024. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of Fidelity Series Modity price movement. The serial correlation of -0.38 indicates that just about 38.0% of current Fidelity Series price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | -0.38 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | -0.07 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 7.19 |
Fidelity Series Modity lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is Fidelity Series mutual fund's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting Fidelity Series' mutual fund expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of Fidelity Series returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that Fidelity Series has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the mutual fund is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
Fidelity Series regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If Fidelity Series mutual fund is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if Fidelity Series mutual fund is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in Fidelity Series mutual fund over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
Fidelity Series Lagged Returns
When evaluating Fidelity Series' market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of Fidelity Series mutual fund have on its future price. Fidelity Series autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, Fidelity Series autocorrelation shows the relationship between Fidelity Series mutual fund current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in Fidelity Series Modity.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
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Fidelity Series technical mutual fund analysis exercises models and trading practices based on price and volume transformations, such as the moving averages, relative strength index, regressions, price and return correlations, business cycles, fund market cycles, or different charting patterns.