American Funds 2015 Fund Market Value
| FDBTX Fund | USD 11.95 0.08 0.67% |
| Symbol | American |
American Funds 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to American Funds' mutual fund what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of American Funds.
| 02/16/2024 |
| 04/16/2024 |
If you would invest 0.00 in American Funds on February 16, 2024 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding American Funds 2015 or generate 0.0% return on investment in American Funds over 60 days. American Funds is related to or competes with Income Fund, New World, American Mutual, American Mutual, American Funds, American Funds, and Income Fund. The fund normally invests a greater portion of its assets in fixed income, equity-income and balanced funds as it contin... More
American Funds Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure American Funds' mutual fund current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess American Funds 2015 upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Downside Deviation | 0.4656 | |||
| Information Ratio | (0.14) | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 1.65 | |||
| Value At Risk | (0.59) | |||
| Potential Upside | 0.5076 |
American Funds Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for American Funds' investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as American Funds' standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use American Funds historical prices to predict the future American Funds' volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | 0.0159 | |||
| Jensen Alpha | (0.02) | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | (0.03) | |||
| Sortino Ratio | (0.11) | |||
| Treynor Ratio | 0.0068 |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of American Funds' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
American Funds 2015 Backtested Returns
We consider American Funds very steady. American Funds 2015 secures Sharpe Ratio (or Efficiency) of 0.0678, which signifies that the fund had a 0.0678% return per unit of standard deviation over the last 3 months. We have found twenty-seven technical indicators for American Funds 2015, which you can use to evaluate the volatility of the entity. Please confirm American Funds' risk adjusted performance of 0.0159, and Mean Deviation of 0.2552 to double-check if the risk estimate we provide is consistent with the expected return of 0.0233%. The fund shows a Beta (market volatility) of 0.49, which signifies possible diversification benefits within a given portfolio. As returns on the market increase, American Funds' returns are expected to increase less than the market. However, during the bear market, the loss of holding American Funds is expected to be smaller as well.
Auto-correlation | -0.27 |
Weak reverse predictability
American Funds 2015 has weak reverse predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between American Funds time series from 16th of February 2024 to 17th of March 2024 and 17th of March 2024 to 16th of April 2024. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of American Funds 2015 price movement. The serial correlation of -0.27 indicates that nearly 27.0% of current American Funds price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | -0.27 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | -0.48 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 0.01 |
American Funds 2015 lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is American Funds mutual fund's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting American Funds' mutual fund expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of American Funds returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that American Funds has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the mutual fund is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
American Funds regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If American Funds mutual fund is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if American Funds mutual fund is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in American Funds mutual fund over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
American Funds Lagged Returns
When evaluating American Funds' market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of American Funds mutual fund have on its future price. American Funds autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, American Funds autocorrelation shows the relationship between American Funds mutual fund current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in American Funds 2015.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
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American Funds technical mutual fund analysis exercises models and trading practices based on price and volume transformations, such as the moving averages, relative strength index, regressions, price and return correlations, business cycles, fund market cycles, or different charting patterns.