Federated International Leaders Fund Market Value
| FGFCX Fund | USD 32.99 0.04 0.12% |
| Symbol | Federated |
Federated International 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to Federated International's mutual fund what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of Federated International.
| 04/25/2023 |
| 04/19/2024 |
If you would invest 0.00 in Federated International on April 25, 2023 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding Federated International Leaders or generate 0.0% return on investment in Federated International over 360 days. Federated International is related to or competes with Federated Emerging, Federated Mdt, Federated Mdt, Federated Global, Federated Hermes, Federated Strategic, and Federated Strategic. The fund pursues its investment objective of long-term capital growth by investing primarily in a portfolio of equity se... More
Federated International Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure Federated International's mutual fund current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess Federated International Leaders upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Downside Deviation | 0.7199 | |||
| Information Ratio | (0.07) | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 3.08 | |||
| Value At Risk | (1.38) | |||
| Potential Upside | 1.18 |
Federated International Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for Federated International's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as Federated International's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use Federated International historical prices to predict the future Federated International's volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | 0.0194 | |||
| Jensen Alpha | (0.04) | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | (0.05) | |||
| Sortino Ratio | (0.07) | |||
| Treynor Ratio | 0.0116 |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Federated International's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Federated International Backtested Returns
We consider Federated International very steady. Federated International secures Sharpe Ratio (or Efficiency) of 0.0303, which denotes the fund had a 0.0303% return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. We have found twenty-seven technical indicators for Federated International Leaders, which you can use to evaluate the volatility of the entity. Please confirm Federated International's Coefficient Of Variation of 3351.5, mean deviation of 0.5154, and Downside Deviation of 0.7199 to check if the risk estimate we provide is consistent with the expected return of 0.0201%. The fund shows a Beta (market volatility) of 0.89, which means possible diversification benefits within a given portfolio. Federated International returns are very sensitive to returns on the market. As the market goes up or down, Federated International is expected to follow.
Auto-correlation | -0.39 |
Poor reverse predictability
Federated International Leaders has poor reverse predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between Federated International time series from 25th of April 2023 to 22nd of October 2023 and 22nd of October 2023 to 19th of April 2024. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of Federated International price movement. The serial correlation of -0.39 indicates that just about 39.0% of current Federated International price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | -0.39 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | -0.54 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 1.96 |
Federated International lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is Federated International mutual fund's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting Federated International's mutual fund expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of Federated International returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that Federated International has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the mutual fund is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
Federated International regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If Federated International mutual fund is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if Federated International mutual fund is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in Federated International mutual fund over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
Federated International Lagged Returns
When evaluating Federated International's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of Federated International mutual fund have on its future price. Federated International autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, Federated International autocorrelation shows the relationship between Federated International mutual fund current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in Federated International Leaders.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Federated International in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Federated International's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Federated International options trading.
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Try AI Portfolio ArchitectCheck out Federated International Correlation, Federated International Volatility and Federated International Alpha and Beta module to complement your research on Federated International. Note that the Federated International information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Federated International's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try the Pattern Recognition module to use different Pattern Recognition models to time the market across multiple global exchanges.
Federated International technical mutual fund analysis exercises models and trading practices based on price and volume transformations, such as the moving averages, relative strength index, regressions, price and return correlations, business cycles, fund market cycles, or different charting patterns.