Guggenheim Municipal Income Fund Market Value
| GIJCX Fund | USD 11.24 0.01 0.09% |
| Symbol | Guggenheim |
Guggenheim Municipal 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to Guggenheim Municipal's mutual fund what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of Guggenheim Municipal.
| 03/26/2024 |
| 04/25/2024 |
If you would invest 0.00 in Guggenheim Municipal on March 26, 2024 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding Guggenheim Municipal Income or generate 0.0% return on investment in Guggenheim Municipal over 30 days. Guggenheim Municipal is related to or competes with Strategic Advisers. The fund normally invests at least 80 percent of its assets in a diversified portfolio of municipal securities whose interest is free from federal income tax. More
Guggenheim Municipal Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure Guggenheim Municipal's mutual fund current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess Guggenheim Municipal Income upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Information Ratio | (0.44) | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 1.41 | |||
| Value At Risk | (0.35) | |||
| Potential Upside | 0.3518 |
Guggenheim Municipal Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for Guggenheim Municipal's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as Guggenheim Municipal's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use Guggenheim Municipal historical prices to predict the future Guggenheim Municipal's volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | (0.04) | |||
| Jensen Alpha | (0.02) | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | (0.05) | |||
| Treynor Ratio | (2.15) |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Guggenheim Municipal's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Guggenheim Municipal Backtested Returns
Guggenheim Municipal holds Efficiency (Sharpe) Ratio of -0.0184, which attests that the entity had a -0.0184% return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. Guggenheim Municipal exposes twenty-two different technical indicators, which can help you to evaluate volatility embedded in its price movement. Please check out Guggenheim Municipal's Standard Deviation of 0.2219, risk adjusted performance of (0.04), and Market Risk Adjusted Performance of (2.14) to validate the risk estimate we provide. The fund retains a Market Volatility (i.e., Beta) of 0.0089, which attests to not very significant fluctuations relative to the market. As returns on the market increase, Guggenheim Municipal's returns are expected to increase less than the market. However, during the bear market, the loss of holding Guggenheim Municipal is expected to be smaller as well.
Auto-correlation | 0.72 |
Good predictability
Guggenheim Municipal Income has good predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between Guggenheim Municipal time series from 26th of March 2024 to 10th of April 2024 and 10th of April 2024 to 25th of April 2024. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of Guggenheim Municipal price movement. The serial correlation of 0.72 indicates that around 72.0% of current Guggenheim Municipal price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | 0.72 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | 0.27 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 0.0 |
Guggenheim Municipal lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is Guggenheim Municipal mutual fund's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting Guggenheim Municipal's mutual fund expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of Guggenheim Municipal returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that Guggenheim Municipal has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the mutual fund is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
Guggenheim Municipal regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If Guggenheim Municipal mutual fund is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if Guggenheim Municipal mutual fund is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in Guggenheim Municipal mutual fund over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
Guggenheim Municipal Lagged Returns
When evaluating Guggenheim Municipal's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of Guggenheim Municipal mutual fund have on its future price. Guggenheim Municipal autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, Guggenheim Municipal autocorrelation shows the relationship between Guggenheim Municipal mutual fund current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in Guggenheim Municipal Income.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
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Guggenheim Municipal technical mutual fund analysis exercises models and trading practices based on price and volume transformations, such as the moving averages, relative strength index, regressions, price and return correlations, business cycles, fund market cycles, or different charting patterns.