Guidepath Tactical Allocation Fund Market Value
| GPTUX Fund | USD 12.53 0.15 1.21% |
| Symbol | Guidepath(r) |
Guidepath(r) Tactical 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to Guidepath(r) Tactical's mutual fund what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of Guidepath(r) Tactical.
| 05/05/2022 |
| 04/24/2024 |
If you would invest 0.00 in Guidepath(r) Tactical on May 5, 2022 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding Guidepath Tactical Allocation or generate 0.0% return on investment in Guidepath(r) Tactical over 720 days. Guidepath(r) Tactical is related to or competes with Guidemark Large, Guidepath(r) Growth, Cohen, Gabelli Equity, Fidelity Freedom, Fidelity 500, and Invesco Floating. In seeking to maximize total return, under normal circumstances, the funds assets are allocated into a diversified portfolio consisting of domestic and international equity securities and Global Depositary Receipts , domestic and international fixed income securities, exchange-traded funds , mutual funds and cash equivalent money market securities. More
Guidepath(r) Tactical Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure Guidepath(r) Tactical's mutual fund current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess Guidepath Tactical Allocation upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Downside Deviation | 0.8281 | |||
| Information Ratio | (0.03) | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 3.65 | |||
| Value At Risk | (1.40) | |||
| Potential Upside | 1.24 |
Guidepath(r) Tactical Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for Guidepath(r) Tactical's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as Guidepath(r) Tactical's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use Guidepath(r) Tactical historical prices to predict the future Guidepath(r) Tactical's volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | 0.0527 | |||
| Jensen Alpha | (0.03) | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | (0.05) | |||
| Sortino Ratio | (0.03) | |||
| Treynor Ratio | 0.0517 |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Guidepath(r) Tactical's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Guidepath(r) Tactical Backtested Returns
We consider Guidepath(r) Tactical very steady. Guidepath(r) Tactical holds Efficiency (Sharpe) Ratio of 0.0693, which attests that the entity had a 0.0693% return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. We have found twenty-seven technical indicators for Guidepath(r) Tactical, which you can use to evaluate the volatility of the entity. Please check out Guidepath(r) Tactical's Market Risk Adjusted Performance of 0.0617, downside deviation of 0.8281, and Risk Adjusted Performance of 0.0527 to validate if the risk estimate we provide is consistent with the expected return of 0.0555%. The fund retains a Market Volatility (i.e., Beta) of 1.08, which attests to a somewhat significant risk relative to the market. Guidepath(r) Tactical returns are very sensitive to returns on the market. As the market goes up or down, Guidepath(r) Tactical is expected to follow.
Auto-correlation | 0.28 |
Poor predictability
Guidepath Tactical Allocation has poor predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between Guidepath(r) Tactical time series from 5th of May 2022 to 30th of April 2023 and 30th of April 2023 to 24th of April 2024. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of Guidepath(r) Tactical price movement. The serial correlation of 0.28 indicates that nearly 28.0% of current Guidepath(r) Tactical price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | 0.28 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | 0.19 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 0.61 |
Guidepath(r) Tactical lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is Guidepath(r) Tactical mutual fund's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting Guidepath(r) Tactical's mutual fund expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of Guidepath(r) Tactical returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that Guidepath(r) Tactical has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the mutual fund is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
Guidepath(r) Tactical regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If Guidepath(r) Tactical mutual fund is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if Guidepath(r) Tactical mutual fund is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in Guidepath(r) Tactical mutual fund over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
Guidepath(r) Tactical Lagged Returns
When evaluating Guidepath(r) Tactical's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of Guidepath(r) Tactical mutual fund have on its future price. Guidepath(r) Tactical autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, Guidepath(r) Tactical autocorrelation shows the relationship between Guidepath(r) Tactical mutual fund current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in Guidepath Tactical Allocation.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
Building efficient market-beating portfolios requires time, education, and a lot of computing power!
The Portfolio Architect is an AI-driven system that provides multiple benefits to our users by leveraging cutting-edge machine learning algorithms, statistical analysis, and predictive modeling to automate the process of asset selection and portfolio construction, saving time and reducing human error for individual and institutional investors.
Try AI Portfolio ArchitectCheck out Guidepath(r) Tactical Correlation, Guidepath(r) Tactical Volatility and Guidepath(r) Tactical Alpha and Beta module to complement your research on Guidepath(r) Tactical. You can also try the Volatility Analysis module to get historical volatility and risk analysis based on latest market data.
Guidepath(r) Tactical technical mutual fund analysis exercises models and trading practices based on price and volume transformations, such as the moving averages, relative strength index, regressions, price and return correlations, business cycles, fund market cycles, or different charting patterns.