Guggenheim Risk Managed Fund Market Value
| GURIX Fund | USD 29.73 0.48 1.59% |
| Symbol | Guggenheim |
Guggenheim Risk 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to Guggenheim Risk's mutual fund what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of Guggenheim Risk.
| 03/17/2024 |
| 04/16/2024 |
If you would invest 0.00 in Guggenheim Risk on March 17, 2024 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding Guggenheim Risk Managed or generate 0.0% return on investment in Guggenheim Risk over 30 days. Guggenheim Risk is related to or competes with Real Estate, Cohen, Guggenheim Total, and Altegris/aaca Opportunistic. The fund normally invests at least 80 percent of its assets in long and short equity securities of issuers primarily engaged in the real estate industry, such as real estate investment trusts and equity-like securities, including individual securities, exchange-traded funds and derivatives, giving exposure to issuers primarily engaged in the real estate industry. More
Guggenheim Risk Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure Guggenheim Risk's mutual fund current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess Guggenheim Risk Managed upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Information Ratio | (0.16) | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 6.61 | |||
| Value At Risk | (1.59) | |||
| Potential Upside | 1.22 |
Guggenheim Risk Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for Guggenheim Risk's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as Guggenheim Risk's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use Guggenheim Risk historical prices to predict the future Guggenheim Risk's volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | (0.06) | |||
| Jensen Alpha | (0.18) | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | (0.20) | |||
| Treynor Ratio | (0.09) |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Guggenheim Risk's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Guggenheim Risk Managed Backtested Returns
Guggenheim Risk Managed holds Efficiency (Sharpe) Ratio of -0.0679, which attests that the entity had a -0.0679% return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. Guggenheim Risk Managed exposes twenty-one different technical indicators, which can help you to evaluate volatility embedded in its price movement. Please check out Guggenheim Risk's Standard Deviation of 1.03, market risk adjusted performance of (0.08), and Risk Adjusted Performance of (0.06) to validate the risk estimate we provide. The fund retains a Market Volatility (i.e., Beta) of 1.23, which attests to a somewhat significant risk relative to the market. As the market goes up, the company is expected to outperform it. However, if the market returns are negative, Guggenheim Risk will likely underperform.
Auto-correlation | -0.8 |
Almost perfect reverse predictability
Guggenheim Risk Managed has almost perfect reverse predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between Guggenheim Risk time series from 17th of March 2024 to 1st of April 2024 and 1st of April 2024 to 16th of April 2024. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of Guggenheim Risk Managed price movement. The serial correlation of -0.8 indicates that around 80.0% of current Guggenheim Risk price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | -0.8 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | 0.1 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 0.16 |
Guggenheim Risk Managed lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is Guggenheim Risk mutual fund's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting Guggenheim Risk's mutual fund expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of Guggenheim Risk returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that Guggenheim Risk has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the mutual fund is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
Guggenheim Risk regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If Guggenheim Risk mutual fund is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if Guggenheim Risk mutual fund is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in Guggenheim Risk mutual fund over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
Guggenheim Risk Lagged Returns
When evaluating Guggenheim Risk's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of Guggenheim Risk mutual fund have on its future price. Guggenheim Risk autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, Guggenheim Risk autocorrelation shows the relationship between Guggenheim Risk mutual fund current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in Guggenheim Risk Managed.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
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Guggenheim Risk technical mutual fund analysis exercises models and trading practices based on price and volume transformations, such as the moving averages, relative strength index, regressions, price and return correlations, business cycles, fund market cycles, or different charting patterns.