Hostelworld Group (Ireland) Market Value
| HSW Stock | EUR 1.77 0.19 9.69% |
| Symbol | Hostelworld |
Hostelworld Group 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to Hostelworld Group's stock what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of Hostelworld Group.
| 03/25/2024 |
| 04/24/2024 |
If you would invest 0.00 in Hostelworld Group on March 25, 2024 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding Hostelworld Group PLC or generate 0.0% return on investment in Hostelworld Group over 30 days. Hostelworld Group is related to or competes with Dalata Hotel, Cairn Homes, Irish Continental, and AIB Group. Hostelworld Group plc operates an online hostel booking platform worldwide More
Hostelworld Group Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure Hostelworld Group's stock current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess Hostelworld Group PLC upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Downside Deviation | 5.53 | |||
| Information Ratio | (0) | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 19.88 | |||
| Value At Risk | (4.08) | |||
| Potential Upside | 3.8 |
Hostelworld Group Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for Hostelworld Group's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as Hostelworld Group's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use Hostelworld Group historical prices to predict the future Hostelworld Group's volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | 0.0224 | |||
| Jensen Alpha | 0.0992 | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | (0.34) | |||
| Sortino Ratio | (0) | |||
| Treynor Ratio | (0.14) |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Hostelworld Group's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hostelworld Group PLC Backtested Returns
Hostelworld Group appears to be very risky, given 3 months investment horizon. Hostelworld Group PLC holds Efficiency (Sharpe) Ratio of 0.0749, which attests that the entity had a 0.0749% return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. We have found twenty-nine technical indicators for Hostelworld Group PLC, which you can use to evaluate the volatility of the firm. Please utilize Hostelworld Group's Downside Deviation of 5.53, risk adjusted performance of 0.0224, and Market Risk Adjusted Performance of (0.13) to validate if our risk estimates are consistent with your expectations. On a scale of 0 to 100, Hostelworld Group holds a performance score of 5. The company retains a Market Volatility (i.e., Beta) of -0.45, which attests to possible diversification benefits within a given portfolio. As returns on the market increase, returns on owning Hostelworld Group are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During the bear market, Hostelworld Group is likely to outperform the market. Please check Hostelworld Group's sortino ratio, potential upside, skewness, as well as the relationship between the maximum drawdown and semi variance , to make a quick decision on whether Hostelworld Group's current trending patterns will revert.
Auto-correlation | -0.33 |
Poor reverse predictability
Hostelworld Group PLC has poor reverse predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between Hostelworld Group time series from 25th of March 2024 to 9th of April 2024 and 9th of April 2024 to 24th of April 2024. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of Hostelworld Group PLC price movement. The serial correlation of -0.33 indicates that nearly 33.0% of current Hostelworld Group price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | -0.33 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | -0.73 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 0.01 |
Hostelworld Group PLC lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is Hostelworld Group stock's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting Hostelworld Group's stock expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of Hostelworld Group returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that Hostelworld Group has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the stock is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
Hostelworld Group regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If Hostelworld Group stock is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if Hostelworld Group stock is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in Hostelworld Group stock over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
Hostelworld Group Lagged Returns
When evaluating Hostelworld Group's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of Hostelworld Group stock have on its future price. Hostelworld Group autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, Hostelworld Group autocorrelation shows the relationship between Hostelworld Group stock current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in Hostelworld Group PLC.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
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Complementary Tools for Hostelworld Stock analysis
When running Hostelworld Group's price analysis, check to measure Hostelworld Group's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Hostelworld Group is operating at the current time. Most of Hostelworld Group's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Hostelworld Group's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Hostelworld Group's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Hostelworld Group to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Hostelworld Group technical stock analysis exercises models and trading practices based on price and volume transformations, such as the moving averages, relative strength index, regressions, price and return correlations, business cycles, stock market cycles, or different charting patterns.