Ashmore Emerging's market value is the price at which a share of Ashmore Emerging stock trades on a public exchange. It measures the collective expectations of Ashmore Emerging Markets investors about the entity's future performance. With this module, you can estimate the performance of a buy and hold strategy of Ashmore Emerging Markets and determine expected loss or profit from investing in Ashmore Emerging over a given investment horizon. Check out Ashmore Emerging Correlation, Ashmore Emerging Volatility and Ashmore Emerging Alpha and Beta module to complement your research on Ashmore Emerging.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Ashmore Emerging's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Ashmore Emerging is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Ashmore Emerging's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.
Ashmore Emerging 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to Ashmore Emerging's mutual fund what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of Ashmore Emerging.
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure Ashmore Emerging's mutual fund current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess Ashmore Emerging Markets upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for Ashmore Emerging's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as Ashmore Emerging's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use Ashmore Emerging historical prices to predict the future Ashmore Emerging's volatility.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Ashmore Emerging's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Ashmore Emerging in the context of predictive analytics.
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Ashmore Emerging. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Ashmore Emerging's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Ashmore Emerging's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Ashmore Emerging Markets.
Ashmore Emerging Markets Backtested Returns
We consider Ashmore Emerging very steady. Ashmore Emerging Markets secures Sharpe Ratio (or Efficiency) of 0.14, which signifies that the fund had 0.14% return per unit of standard deviation over the last 3 months. Our philosophy in foreseeing the volatility of a fund is to use all available market data together with fund-specific technical indicators that cannot be diversified away. We have found twenty-seven technical indicators for Ashmore Emerging Markets, which you can use to evaluate the future volatility of the entity. Please confirm Ashmore Emerging's risk adjusted performance of 0.1326, and Mean Deviation of 0.334 to double-check if the risk estimate we provide is consistent with the expected return of 0.0697%. The fund shows a Beta (market volatility) of -0.035, which signifies not very significant fluctuations relative to the market. As returns on the market increase, returns on owning Ashmore Emerging are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During the bear market, Ashmore Emerging is likely to outperform the market. Although it is important to respect Ashmore Emerging Markets historical returns, it is better to be realistic regarding the information on the equity's current trending patterns.
Insignificant reverse predictability
Ashmore Emerging Markets has insignificant reverse predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between Ashmore Emerging time series from 24th of November 2023 to 8th of January 2024 and 8th of January 2024 to 22nd of February 2024. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of Ashmore Emerging Markets price movement. The serial correlation of -0.12 indicates that less than 12.0% of current Ashmore Emerging price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
Spearman Rank Test
Ashmore Emerging Markets lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is Ashmore Emerging mutual fund's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting Ashmore Emerging's mutual fund expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of Ashmore Emerging returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that Ashmore Emerging mutual fund has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the stock is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the stock movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values
Ashmore Emerging regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If Ashmore Emerging mutual fund is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if Ashmore Emerging mutual fund is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in Ashmore Emerging mutual fund over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices
Ashmore Emerging Lagged Returns
When evaluating Ashmore Emerging's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of Ashmore Emerging mutual fund have on its future price. Ashmore Emerging autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, Ashmore Emerging autocorrelation shows the relationship between Ashmore Emerging mutual fund current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in Ashmore Emerging Markets.
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Check out Ashmore Emerging Correlation, Ashmore Emerging Volatility and Ashmore Emerging Alpha and Beta module to complement your research on Ashmore Emerging. Note that the Ashmore Emerging Markets information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Ashmore Emerging's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try the AI Portfolio Architect module to use AI to generate optimal portfolios and find profitable investment opportunities.
Complementary Tools for Ashmore Mutual Fund analysis
When running Ashmore Emerging's price analysis, check to measure Ashmore Emerging's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Ashmore Emerging is operating at the current time. Most of Ashmore Emerging's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Ashmore Emerging's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Ashmore Emerging's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Ashmore Emerging to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
Check effects of mean-variance optimization against your current asset allocation
Ashmore Emerging technical mutual fund analysis exercises models and trading practices based on price and volume transformations, such as the moving averages, relative strength index, regressions, price and return correlations, business cycles, fund market cycles, or different charting patterns.
A focus of Ashmore Emerging technical analysis is to determine if market prices reflect all relevant information impacting that market. A technical analyst looks at the history of Ashmore Emerging trading pattern rather than external drivers such as economic, fundamental, or social events. It is believed that price action tends to repeat itself due to investors' collective, patterned behavior. Hence technical analysis focuses on identifiable price trends and conditions. More Info...
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