Illuvium Market Value
| ILV Crypto | USD 109.74 1.05 0.97% |
| Symbol | Illuvium |
Illuvium 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to Illuvium's crypto coin what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of Illuvium.
| 11/02/2023 |
| 12/02/2023 |
If you would invest 0.00 in Illuvium on November 2, 2023 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding Illuvium or generate 0.0% return on investment in Illuvium over 30 days. Illuvium is related to or competes with XRP, Solana, Staked Ether, Chainlink, Arbitrum, Avalanche, and Polygon. Illuvium is peer-to-peer digital currency powered by the Blockchain technology.
Illuvium Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure Illuvium's crypto coin current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess Illuvium upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Downside Deviation | 3.09 | |||
| Information Ratio | 0.2839 | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 27.28 | |||
| Value At Risk | (4.17) | |||
| Potential Upside | 16.03 |
Illuvium Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for Illuvium's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as Illuvium's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use Illuvium historical prices to predict the future Illuvium's volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | 0.2272 | |||
| Jensen Alpha | 1.55 | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | 1.57 | |||
| Sortino Ratio | 0.5038 | |||
| Treynor Ratio | (2.68) |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Illuvium's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Illuvium in the context of predictive analytics.
Illuvium Backtested Returns
Illuvium is unusually risky given 3 months investment horizon. Illuvium holds Efficiency (Sharpe) Ratio of 0.3, which attests that digital coin had 0.3% of return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. Our standpoint towards determining the risk of a crypto is to use both market data as well as coin specific technical data. We were able to interpolate and analyze data for twenty-one different technical indicators, which can help you to evaluate if expected returns of 1.65% are justified by taking the suggested risk. Use Illuvium Downside Deviation of 3.09, market risk adjusted performance of (2.67), and Risk Adjusted Performance of 0.2272 to evaluate coin specific risk that cannot be diversified away. The crypto retains a Market Volatility (i.e., Beta) of -0.5796, which attests to possible diversification benefits within a given portfolio. As returns on the market increase, returns on owning Illuvium are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During the bear market, Illuvium is likely to outperform the market. Our philosophy towards determining future performance of any crypto is to look not only at its past charts but also at the business as a whole, including all fundamental and technical indicators. To evaluate if Illuvium expected return of 1.65 will be sustainable into the future, we have found twenty-one different technical indicators, which can help you to check if the expected returns are sustainable.
Auto-correlation | 0.81 |
Very good predictability
Illuvium has very good predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between Illuvium time series from 2nd of November 2023 to 17th of November 2023 and 17th of November 2023 to 2nd of December 2023. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of Illuvium price movement. The serial correlation of 0.81 indicates that around 81.0% of current Illuvium price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | 0.81 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | 0.48 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 70.87 |
Illuvium lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is Illuvium crypto coin's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting Illuvium's crypto coin expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of Illuvium returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that Illuvium crypto coin has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the stock is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the stock movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
Illuvium regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If Illuvium crypto coin is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if Illuvium crypto coin is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in Illuvium crypto coin over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
Illuvium Lagged Returns
When evaluating Illuvium's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of Illuvium crypto coin have on its future price. Illuvium autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, Illuvium autocorrelation shows the relationship between Illuvium crypto coin current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in Illuvium.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
Some cryptocurrency investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. However, unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Illuvium in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the crypto's market sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools provided by cryptocurrency exchanges to gauge market sentiment could be utilized to time the market in a somewhat predictable way.
Becoming a Better Investor with Macroaxis
Macroaxis puts the power of mathematics on your side. We analyze your portfolios and positions such as Illuvium using complex mathematical models and algorithms, but make them easy to understand. There is no real person involved in your portfolio analysis. We perform a number of calculations to compute absolute and relative portfolio volatility, correlation between your assets, value at risk, expected return as well as over 100 different fundamental and technical indicators.Build Optimal Portfolios
Align your risk with return expectations
Check out Illuvium Correlation, Illuvium Volatility and Investing Opportunities module to complement your research on Illuvium. You can also try the Premium Stories module to follow Macroaxis premium stories from verified contributors across different equity types, categories and coverage scope.
Complementary Tools for Illuvium Crypto Coin analysis
When running Illuvium's price analysis, check to measure Illuvium's coin volatility and technical momentum indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Illuvium is operating at the current time. Most of Illuvium's value examination focuses on studying past and present price actions to predict the probability of Illuvium's future price movements. You can analyze the coin against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Illuvium's coin price. Additionally, you may evaluate how adding Illuvium to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Illuvium technical crypto coin analysis exercises models and trading practices based on price and volume transformations, such as the moving averages, relative strength index, regressions, price and return correlations, business cycles, crypto market cycles, or different charting patterns.