MDC Holdings Market Value
| MDCDelisted Stock | USD 62.98 0.00 0.00% |
| Symbol | MDC |
MDC Holdings 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to MDC Holdings' stock what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of MDC Holdings.
| 03/24/2024 |
| 04/23/2024 |
If you would invest 0.00 in MDC Holdings on March 24, 2024 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding MDC Holdings or generate 0.0% return on investment in MDC Holdings over 30 days. MDC Holdings is related to or competes with Taylor Morn, Century Communities, Beazer Homes, Meritage, TRI Pointe, Hovnanian Enterprises, and KB Home. Holdings, Inc., through its subsidiaries, engages in the homebuilding and financial service businesses More
MDC Holdings Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure MDC Holdings' stock current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess MDC Holdings upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Downside Deviation | 0.1807 | |||
| Information Ratio | 0.0892 | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 18.69 | |||
| Value At Risk | (0.32) | |||
| Potential Upside | 0.3376 |
MDC Holdings Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for MDC Holdings' investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as MDC Holdings' standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use MDC Holdings historical prices to predict the future MDC Holdings' volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | 0.0865 | |||
| Jensen Alpha | 0.2725 | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | (0.01) | |||
| Sortino Ratio | 1.12 | |||
| Treynor Ratio | 2.57 |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of MDC Holdings' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
MDC Holdings Backtested Returns
We consider MDC Holdings very steady. MDC Holdings retains Efficiency (Sharpe Ratio) of 0.18, which conveys that the firm had a 0.18% return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. We have found twenty-five technical indicators for MDC Holdings, which you can use to evaluate the volatility of the firm. Please verify MDC Holdings' Market Risk Adjusted Performance of 2.58, downside deviation of 0.1807, and Mean Deviation of 0.5589 to check out if the risk estimate we provide is consistent with the expected return of 0.024%. MDC Holdings has a performance score of 13 on a scale of 0 to 100. The company owns a Beta (Systematic Risk) of 0.11, which conveys not very significant fluctuations relative to the market. As returns on the market increase, MDC Holdings' returns are expected to increase less than the market. However, during the bear market, the loss of holding MDC Holdings is expected to be smaller as well. MDC Holdings at this time owns a risk of 0.13%. Please verify MDC Holdings value at risk, kurtosis, and the relationship between the sortino ratio and semi variance , to decide if MDC Holdings will be following its current price history.
Auto-correlation | -0.06 |
Very weak reverse predictability
MDC Holdings has very weak reverse predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between MDC Holdings time series from 24th of March 2024 to 8th of April 2024 and 8th of April 2024 to 23rd of April 2024. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of MDC Holdings price movement. The serial correlation of -0.06 indicates that barely 6.0% of current MDC Holdings price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | -0.06 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | 0.28 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 0.0 |
MDC Holdings lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is MDC Holdings stock's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting MDC Holdings' stock expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of MDC Holdings returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that MDC Holdings has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the stock is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
MDC Holdings regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If MDC Holdings stock is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if MDC Holdings stock is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in MDC Holdings stock over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
MDC Holdings Lagged Returns
When evaluating MDC Holdings' market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of MDC Holdings stock have on its future price. MDC Holdings autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, MDC Holdings autocorrelation shows the relationship between MDC Holdings stock current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in MDC Holdings.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards MDC Holdings in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, MDC Holdings' short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from MDC Holdings options trading.
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Try AI Portfolio ArchitectCheck out MDC Holdings Correlation, MDC Holdings Volatility and MDC Holdings Alpha and Beta module to complement your research on MDC Holdings. Note that the MDC Holdings information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other MDC Holdings' statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try the Fundamental Analysis module to view fundamental data based on most recent published financial statements.
Other Consideration for investing in MDC Stock
If you are still planning to invest in MDC Holdings check if it may still be traded through OTC markets such as Pink Sheets or OTC Bulletin Board. You may also purchase it directly from the company, but this is not always possible and may require contacting the company directly. Please note that delisted stocks are often considered to be more risky investments, as they are no longer subject to the same regulatory and reporting requirements as listed stocks. Therefore, it is essential to carefully research the MDC Holdings' history and understand the potential risks before investing.
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