Blackrock Nj Municipal Fund Market Value
| MDNJX Fund | USD 10.25 0.03 0.29% |
| Symbol | Blackrock |
Blackrock 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to Blackrock's mutual fund what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of Blackrock.
| 01/17/2024 |
| 04/16/2024 |
If you would invest 0.00 in Blackrock on January 17, 2024 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding Blackrock Nj Municipal or generate 0.0% return on investment in Blackrock over 90 days. Blackrock is related to or competes with Blackrock California, Blackrock Balanced, Blackrock Eurofund, Blackrock Emerging, Blackrock Equity, Blackrock Advantage, and Blackrock Large. The fund invests primarily in a portfolio of long-term investment grade New Jersey municipal bonds More
Blackrock Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure Blackrock's mutual fund current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess Blackrock Nj Municipal upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Information Ratio | (0.33) | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 1.36 | |||
| Value At Risk | (0.29) | |||
| Potential Upside | 0.2935 |
Blackrock Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for Blackrock's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as Blackrock's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use Blackrock historical prices to predict the future Blackrock's volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | (0.04) | |||
| Jensen Alpha | (0.02) | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | (0.04) | |||
| Treynor Ratio | (7.16) |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Blackrock's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Blackrock Nj Municipal Backtested Returns
Blackrock Nj Municipal secures Sharpe Ratio (or Efficiency) of -0.0062, which signifies that the fund had a -0.0062% return per unit of standard deviation over the last 3 months. Blackrock Nj Municipal exposes twenty-one different technical indicators, which can help you to evaluate volatility embedded in its price movement. Please confirm Blackrock's risk adjusted performance of (0.04), and Mean Deviation of 0.1469 to double-check the risk estimate we provide. The fund shows a Beta (market volatility) of 0.0026, which signifies not very significant fluctuations relative to the market. As returns on the market increase, Blackrock's returns are expected to increase less than the market. However, during the bear market, the loss of holding Blackrock is expected to be smaller as well.
Auto-correlation | -0.51 |
Good reverse predictability
Blackrock Nj Municipal has good reverse predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between Blackrock time series from 17th of January 2024 to 2nd of March 2024 and 2nd of March 2024 to 16th of April 2024. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of Blackrock Nj Municipal price movement. The serial correlation of -0.51 indicates that about 51.0% of current Blackrock price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | -0.51 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | -0.68 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 0.0 |
Blackrock Nj Municipal lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is Blackrock mutual fund's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting Blackrock's mutual fund expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of Blackrock returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that Blackrock has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the mutual fund is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
Blackrock regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If Blackrock mutual fund is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if Blackrock mutual fund is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in Blackrock mutual fund over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
Blackrock Lagged Returns
When evaluating Blackrock's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of Blackrock mutual fund have on its future price. Blackrock autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, Blackrock autocorrelation shows the relationship between Blackrock mutual fund current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in Blackrock Nj Municipal.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Blackrock in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Blackrock's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Blackrock options trading.
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Blackrock technical mutual fund analysis exercises models and trading practices based on price and volume transformations, such as the moving averages, relative strength index, regressions, price and return correlations, business cycles, fund market cycles, or different charting patterns.