Blackrock National Municipal Fund Market Value
| MDNLX Fund | USD 10.04 0.01 0.1% |
| Symbol | Blackrock |
Blackrock National 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to Blackrock National's mutual fund what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of Blackrock National.
| 01/26/2024 |
| 04/25/2024 |
If you would invest 0.00 in Blackrock National on January 26, 2024 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding Blackrock National Municipal or generate 0.0% return on investment in Blackrock National over 90 days. Blackrock National is related to or competes with Vanguard Intermediate, Tax Exempt, Tax Exempt, Fidelity Intermediate, and . The fund seeks to achieve its objective by investing at least 80 percent of its assets in municipal bonds More
Blackrock National Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure Blackrock National's mutual fund current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess Blackrock National Municipal upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Information Ratio | (0.61) | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 0.9915 | |||
| Value At Risk | (0.20) | |||
| Potential Upside | 0.2964 |
Blackrock National Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for Blackrock National's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as Blackrock National's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use Blackrock National historical prices to predict the future Blackrock National's volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | (0.03) | |||
| Jensen Alpha | (0.01) | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | (0.03) | |||
| Treynor Ratio | (0.82) |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Blackrock National's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Blackrock National Backtested Returns
We consider Blackrock National very steady. Blackrock National secures Sharpe Ratio (or Efficiency) of 0.0107, which signifies that the fund had a 0.0107% return per unit of standard deviation over the last 3 months. We have found twenty-two technical indicators for Blackrock National Municipal, which you can use to evaluate the volatility of the entity. Please confirm Blackrock National's risk adjusted performance of (0.03), and Mean Deviation of 0.1009 to double-check if the risk estimate we provide is consistent with the expected return of 0.0017%. The fund shows a Beta (market volatility) of 0.0139, which signifies not very significant fluctuations relative to the market. As returns on the market increase, Blackrock National's returns are expected to increase less than the market. However, during the bear market, the loss of holding Blackrock National is expected to be smaller as well.
Auto-correlation | -0.67 |
Very good reverse predictability
Blackrock National Municipal has very good reverse predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between Blackrock National time series from 26th of January 2024 to 11th of March 2024 and 11th of March 2024 to 25th of April 2024. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of Blackrock National price movement. The serial correlation of -0.67 indicates that around 67.0% of current Blackrock National price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | -0.67 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | -0.61 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 0.0 |
Blackrock National lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is Blackrock National mutual fund's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting Blackrock National's mutual fund expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of Blackrock National returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that Blackrock National has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the mutual fund is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
Blackrock National regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If Blackrock National mutual fund is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if Blackrock National mutual fund is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in Blackrock National mutual fund over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
Blackrock National Lagged Returns
When evaluating Blackrock National's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of Blackrock National mutual fund have on its future price. Blackrock National autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, Blackrock National autocorrelation shows the relationship between Blackrock National mutual fund current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in Blackrock National Municipal.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
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Blackrock National technical mutual fund analysis exercises models and trading practices based on price and volume transformations, such as the moving averages, relative strength index, regressions, price and return correlations, business cycles, fund market cycles, or different charting patterns.