Merck Stock Market Value

MRK -  USA Stock  

USD 78.33  0.62  0.79%

Merck's market value is the price at which a share of Merck stock trades on a public exchange. It measures the collective expectations of Merck Company investors about the entity's future performance. With this module, you can estimate the performance of a buy and hold strategy of Merck Company and determine expected loss or profit from investing in Merck over a given investment horizon. Additionally, see Merck Hype Analysis, Merck Correlation, Merck Valuation, Merck Volatility, as well as analyze Merck Alpha and Beta and Merck Performance.
Symbol
Backtest


The market value of Merck Company is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Merck that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Merck's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Merck's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Merck's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Merck Company underlying business (such as pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Merck's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Merck value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Merck's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.

Merck 'What if' Analysis

In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to Merck's stock what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of Merck.
0.00
10/28/2019
No Change 0.00  0.0 
In 1 year 11 months and 22 days
10/17/2021
0.00
If you would invest  0.00  in Merck on October 28, 2019 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding Merck Company or generate 0.0% return on investment in Merck over 720 days. Merck is related to or competes with Grifols SA. Merck Co., Inc. operates as a healthcare company worldwide

Merck Upside/Downside Indicators

Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure Merck's stock current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess Merck Company upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.

Merck Market Risk Indicators

Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for Merck's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as Merck's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use Merck historical prices to predict the future Merck's volatility.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Merck's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Merck in the context of predictive analytics.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimated ValueHigh
76.8878.3179.74
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
70.5085.7087.13
Details
13 Analysts
Consensus
LowTarget PriceHigh
79.0093.55107.00
Details
Earnings
Estimates (7)
LowProjected EPSHigh
5.475.515.55
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Merck. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Merck's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Merck's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in Merck Company.

Merck Company Backtested Returns

We consider Merck very steady. Merck Company has Sharpe Ratio of 0.0246, which conveys that the firm had 0.0246% of return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. Our standpoint towards estimating the volatility of a stock is to use all available market data together with stock-specific technical indicators that cannot be diversified away. We have found twenty-one technical indicators for Merck, which you can use to evaluate the future volatility of the firm. Please verify Merck Company Risk Adjusted Performance of 0.0145, mean deviation of 0.8812, and Downside Deviation of 1.02 to check out if the risk estimate we provide is consistent with the expected return of 0.0351%.
Merck has performance score of 1 on a scale of 0 to 100. The company secures a Beta (Market Risk) of 0.4867, which conveys possible diversification benefits within a given portfolio. Let's try to break down what Merck's beta means in this case. As returns on the market increase, Merck returns are expected to increase less than the market. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Merck will be expected to be smaller as well. Although it is extremely important to respect Merck Company price patterns, it is better to be realistic regarding the information on equity historical price patterns. The philosophy towards estimating future performance of any stock is to evaluate the business as a whole together with its past performance, including all available fundamental and technical indicators. By analyzing Merck Company technical indicators, you can presently evaluate if the expected return of 0.0351% will be sustainable into the future. Merck Company right now secures a risk of 1.43%. Please verify Merck Company variance, value at risk, as well as the relationship between the Value At Risk and skewness to decide if Merck Company will be following its current price movements.
AdviceVolatility TrendExposureCorrelations

Auto-correlation

    
   0.42   

Average predictability

Merck Company has average predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between Merck time series from 28th of October 2019 to 22nd of October 2020 and 22nd of October 2020 to 17th of October 2021. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of Merck Company price movement. The serial correlation of 0.42 indicates that just about 42.0% of current Merck price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
Correlation Coefficient0.42
Spearman Rank Test0.21
Residual Average0.0
Price Variance7.65

Merck Company lagged returns against current returns

Autocorrelation, which is Merck stock's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting Merck's stock expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of Merck returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that Merck stock has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the stock is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the stock movement to match the lagging time series.
 Current and Lagged Values 
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      Timeline 

Merck regressed lagged prices vs. current prices

Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If Merck stock is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if Merck stock is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in Merck stock over time.
 Current vs Lagged Prices 
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      Timeline 

Merck Lagged Returns

When evaluating Merck's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of Merck stock have on its future price. Merck autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, Merck autocorrelation shows the relationship between Merck stock current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in Merck Company.
 Regressed Prices 
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      Timeline 

Be your own money manager

Our tools can tell you how much better you can do entering a position in Merck without increasing your portfolio risk or giving up expected return. As an individual investor, you need to find a reliable way to track all your investment portfolios. However, your requirements will often be based on how much of the process you decide to do yourself. In addition to allowing all investors analytical transparency into all their portfolios, our tools can evaluate.risk-adjusted returns of your individual positions relative to your overall portfolio.

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Additionally, see Merck Hype Analysis, Merck Correlation, Merck Valuation, Merck Volatility, as well as analyze Merck Alpha and Beta and Merck Performance. Note that the Merck Company information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Merck's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try Bollinger Bands module to use Bollinger Bands indicator to analyze target price for a given investing horizon.

Complementary Tools for Merck Stock analysis

When running Merck Company price analysis, check to measure Merck's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Merck is operating at the current time. Most of Merck's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Merck's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Merck's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Merck to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Merck technical stock analysis exercises models and trading practices based on price and volume transformations, such as the moving averages, relative strength index, regressions, price and return correlations, business cycles, stock market cycles, or different charting patterns.
A focus of Merck technical analysis is to determine if market prices reflect all relevant information impacting that market. A technical analyst looks at the history of Merck trading pattern rather than external drivers such as economic, fundamental, or social events. It is believed that price action tends to repeat itself due to investors' collective, patterned behavior. Hence technical analysis focuses on identifiable price trends and conditions. More Info...