Moderna Stock Market Value
| MRNA Stock | USD 108.85 0.96 0.89% |
| Symbol | Moderna |
Moderna Price To Book Ratio
Is Moderna's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Moderna. If investors know Moderna will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Moderna listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.85) | Earnings Share (12.33) | Revenue Per Share 17.927 | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.45) | Return On Assets (0.12) |
The market value of Moderna is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Moderna that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Moderna's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Moderna's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Moderna's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Moderna's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Moderna's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Moderna is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Moderna's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.
Moderna 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to Moderna's stock what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of Moderna.
| 03/26/2024 |
| 04/25/2024 |
If you would invest 0.00 in Moderna on March 26, 2024 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding Moderna or generate 0.0% return on investment in Moderna over 30 days. Moderna is related to or competes with CureVac NV, Novavax, Ocean Biomedical, Enveric Biosciences, Hepion Pharmaceuticals, Elevation Oncology, and AVROBIO. Moderna, Inc., a biotechnology company, discovers, develops, and commercializes messenger RNA therapeutics and vaccines ... More
Moderna Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure Moderna's stock current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess Moderna upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Downside Deviation | 2.75 | |||
| Information Ratio | 0.0234 | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 18.9 | |||
| Value At Risk | (4.08) | |||
| Potential Upside | 6.04 |
Moderna Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for Moderna's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as Moderna's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use Moderna historical prices to predict the future Moderna's volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | 0.0405 | |||
| Jensen Alpha | (0.01) | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | (0.29) | |||
| Sortino Ratio | 0.0284 | |||
| Treynor Ratio | 0.0807 |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Moderna's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Moderna Backtested Returns
We consider Moderna very steady. Moderna has Sharpe Ratio of 0.048, which conveys that the firm had a 0.048% return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. We have found twenty-nine technical indicators for Moderna, which you can use to evaluate the volatility of the firm. Please verify Moderna's Mean Deviation of 2.45, downside deviation of 2.75, and Risk Adjusted Performance of 0.0405 to check out if the risk estimate we provide is consistent with the expected return of 0.16%. Moderna has a performance score of 3 on a scale of 0 to 100. The company secures a Beta (Market Risk) of 2.02, which conveys a somewhat significant risk relative to the market. As the market goes up, the company is expected to outperform it. However, if the market returns are negative, Moderna will likely underperform. Moderna right now secures a risk of 3.42%. Please verify Moderna maximum drawdown, skewness, and the relationship between the total risk alpha and downside variance , to decide if Moderna will be following its current price movements.
Auto-correlation | 0.83 |
Very good predictability
Moderna has very good predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between Moderna time series from 26th of March 2024 to 10th of April 2024 and 10th of April 2024 to 25th of April 2024. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of Moderna price movement. The serial correlation of 0.83 indicates that around 83.0% of current Moderna price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | 0.83 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | 0.07 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 5.38 |
Moderna lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is Moderna stock's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting Moderna's stock expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of Moderna returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that Moderna has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the stock is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
Moderna regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If Moderna stock is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if Moderna stock is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in Moderna stock over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
Moderna Lagged Returns
When evaluating Moderna's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of Moderna stock have on its future price. Moderna autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, Moderna autocorrelation shows the relationship between Moderna stock current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in Moderna.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
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Complementary Tools for Moderna Stock analysis
When running Moderna's price analysis, check to measure Moderna's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Moderna is operating at the current time. Most of Moderna's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Moderna's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Moderna's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Moderna to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Moderna technical stock analysis exercises models and trading practices based on price and volume transformations, such as the moving averages, relative strength index, regressions, price and return correlations, business cycles, stock market cycles, or different charting patterns.