Nicholas Mutual Fund Market Value

NCTWX -  USA Fund  

USD 28.70  0.80  2.87%

Nicholas' market value is the price at which a share of Nicholas stock trades on a public exchange. It measures the collective expectations of Nicholas II investors about the entity's future performance. With this module, you can estimate the performance of a buy and hold strategy of Nicholas II and determine expected loss or profit from investing in Nicholas over a given investment horizon. Additionally, see Nicholas Hype Analysis, Nicholas Correlation, Portfolio Optimization, Nicholas Volatility, as well as analyze Nicholas Alpha and Beta and Nicholas Performance.
Symbol
Backtest

Please note, there is a significant difference between Nicholas' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Nicholas value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Nicholas' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.

Nicholas 'What if' Analysis

In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to Nicholas' mutual fund what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of Nicholas.
0.00
04/16/2022
No Change 0.00  0.0 
In 31 days
05/16/2022
0.00
If you would invest  0.00  in Nicholas on April 16, 2022 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding Nicholas II or generate 0.0% return on investment in Nicholas over 30 days. Nicholas is related to or competes with Vanguard Extended, Vanguard Index, Vanguard Extended, and T Rowe. The investment seeks to increase the value of the investment over the long-term

Nicholas Upside/Downside Indicators

Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure Nicholas' mutual fund current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess Nicholas II upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.

Nicholas Market Risk Indicators

Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for Nicholas' investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as Nicholas' standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use Nicholas historical prices to predict the future Nicholas' volatility.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Nicholas' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Nicholas in the context of predictive analytics.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimated ValueHigh
26.9928.7030.41
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Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
27.4029.1130.82
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Nicholas. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Nicholas' peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Nicholas' competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in Nicholas II.

Nicholas II Backtested Returns

Nicholas II has Sharpe Ratio of -0.0905, which conveys that the entity had -0.0905% of return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. Macroaxis standpoint towards estimating the risk of any fund is to look at both systematic and unsystematic factors of the business, including all available market data and technical indicators. Nicholas exposes twenty-one different technical indicators, which can help you to evaluate volatility that cannot be diversified away. Please be advised to verify Nicholas II risk adjusted performance of (0.14), and Mean Deviation of 1.39 to check out the risk estimate we provide.
The fund secures a Beta (Market Risk) of 1.2213, which conveys a somewhat significant risk relative to the market. Let's try to break down what Nicholas's beta means in this case. As the market goes up, the company is expected to outperform it. However, if the market returns are negative, Nicholas will likely underperform. Even though it is essential to pay attention to Nicholas II price patterns, it is always good to be careful when utilizing equity historical price patterns. Our philosophy towards estimating any fund's future performance is to check both, its past performance charts as well as the business as a whole, including all available technical indicators. Nicholas exposes twenty-one different technical indicators, which can help you to evaluate its performance.

Auto-correlation

    
  0.80  

Very good predictability

Nicholas II has very good predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between Nicholas time series from 16th of April 2022 to 1st of May 2022 and 1st of May 2022 to 16th of May 2022. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of Nicholas II price movement. The serial correlation of 0.8 indicates that around 80.0% of current Nicholas price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
Correlation Coefficient0.8
Spearman Rank Test0.72
Residual Average0.0
Price Variance1.1

Nicholas II lagged returns against current returns

Autocorrelation, which is Nicholas mutual fund's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting Nicholas' mutual fund expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of Nicholas returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that Nicholas mutual fund has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the stock is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the stock movement to match the lagging time series.
 Current and Lagged Values 
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      Timeline 

Nicholas regressed lagged prices vs. current prices

Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If Nicholas mutual fund is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if Nicholas mutual fund is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in Nicholas mutual fund over time.
 Current vs Lagged Prices 
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      Timeline 

Nicholas Lagged Returns

When evaluating Nicholas' market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of Nicholas mutual fund have on its future price. Nicholas autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, Nicholas autocorrelation shows the relationship between Nicholas mutual fund current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in Nicholas II.
 Regressed Prices 
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      Timeline 

Nicholas Investors Sentiment

The influence of Nicholas' investor sentiment on the probability of its price appreciation or decline could be a good factor in your decision-making process regarding taking a position in Nicholas. The overall investor sentiment generally increases the direction of a stock movement in a one-year investment horizon. However, the impact of investor sentiment on the entire stock markets does not have a solid backing from leading economists and market statisticians.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Nicholas in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Nicholas' short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Nicholas options trading.

Current Sentiment - NCTWX

Nicholas II Investor Sentiment

Most of Macroaxis users are now bullish on Nicholas II. What is your trading attitude regarding investing in Nicholas II? Are you bullish or bearish?
Bullish
Bearish
98% Bullish
2% Bearish
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Macroaxis puts the power of mathematics on your side. We analyze your portfolios and positions such as Nicholas II using complex mathematical models and algorithms, but make them easy to understand. There is no real person involved in your portfolio analysis. We perform a number of calculations to compute absolute and relative portfolio volatility, correlation between your assets, value at risk, expected return as well as over 100 different fundamental and technical indicators.

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Additionally, see Nicholas Hype Analysis, Nicholas Correlation, Portfolio Optimization, Nicholas Volatility, as well as analyze Nicholas Alpha and Beta and Nicholas Performance. Note that the Nicholas II information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Nicholas' statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try Analyst Recommendations module to analyst recommendations and target price estimates broken down by several categories.

Complementary Tools for Nicholas Mutual Fund analysis

When running Nicholas II price analysis, check to measure Nicholas' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Nicholas is operating at the current time. Most of Nicholas' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Nicholas' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Nicholas' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Nicholas to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Nicholas technical mutual fund analysis exercises models and trading practices based on price and volume transformations, such as the moving averages, relative strength index, regressions, price and return correlations, business cycles, stock market cycles, or different charting patterns.
A focus of Nicholas technical analysis is to determine if market prices reflect all relevant information impacting that market. A technical analyst looks at the history of Nicholas trading pattern rather than external drivers such as economic, fundamental, or social events. It is believed that price action tends to repeat itself due to investors' collective, patterned behavior. Hence technical analysis focuses on identifiable price trends and conditions. More Info...