Needham Small Cap Fund Market Value
| NESIX Fund | USD 16.10 0.15 0.92% |
| Symbol | Needham |
Needham Small 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to Needham Small's mutual fund what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of Needham Small.
| 02/19/2024 |
| 04/19/2024 |
If you would invest 0.00 in Needham Small on February 19, 2024 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding Needham Small Cap or generate 0.0% return on investment in Needham Small over 60 days. Needham Small is related to or competes with Ultramid Cap, Fidelity Advisor, and Fidelity Advisor. Under normal conditions, the fund invests at least 80 percent of its net assets, plus the amount of any borrowings for investment purposes, in the equity securities of domestic issuers listed on a nationally recognized securities exchange that have market capitalizations not exceeding 8 billion. More
Needham Small Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure Needham Small's mutual fund current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess Needham Small Cap upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Downside Deviation | 1.71 | |||
| Information Ratio | (0.03) | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 8.93 | |||
| Value At Risk | (2.72) | |||
| Potential Upside | 2.6 |
Needham Small Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for Needham Small's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as Needham Small's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use Needham Small historical prices to predict the future Needham Small's volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | 0.0124 | |||
| Jensen Alpha | (0.12) | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | (0.16) | |||
| Sortino Ratio | (0.03) | |||
| Treynor Ratio | 0.0032 |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Needham Small's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Needham Small Cap Backtested Returns
Needham Small Cap has Sharpe Ratio of -0.0184, which conveys that the entity had a -0.0184% return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. Needham Small exposes twenty-seven different technical indicators, which can help you to evaluate volatility embedded in its price movement. Please verify Needham Small's Mean Deviation of 1.38, risk adjusted performance of 0.0124, and Downside Deviation of 1.71 to check out the risk estimate we provide. The fund secures a Beta (Market Risk) of 2.11, which conveys a somewhat significant risk relative to the market. As the market goes up, the company is expected to outperform it. However, if the market returns are negative, Needham Small will likely underperform.
Auto-correlation | 0.62 |
Good predictability
Needham Small Cap has good predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between Needham Small time series from 19th of February 2024 to 20th of March 2024 and 20th of March 2024 to 19th of April 2024. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of Needham Small Cap price movement. The serial correlation of 0.62 indicates that roughly 62.0% of current Needham Small price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | 0.62 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | 0.34 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 0.36 |
Needham Small Cap lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is Needham Small mutual fund's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting Needham Small's mutual fund expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of Needham Small returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that Needham Small has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the mutual fund is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
Needham Small regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If Needham Small mutual fund is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if Needham Small mutual fund is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in Needham Small mutual fund over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
Needham Small Lagged Returns
When evaluating Needham Small's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of Needham Small mutual fund have on its future price. Needham Small autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, Needham Small autocorrelation shows the relationship between Needham Small mutual fund current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in Needham Small Cap.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Needham Small in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Needham Small's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Needham Small options trading.
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Needham Small technical mutual fund analysis exercises models and trading practices based on price and volume transformations, such as the moving averages, relative strength index, regressions, price and return correlations, business cycles, fund market cycles, or different charting patterns.