Aquila Narragansett Tax Free Fund Market Value
| NIFFX Fund | USD 9.99 0.02 0.20% |
| Symbol | Aquila |
Aquila Narragansett 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to Aquila Narragansett's mutual fund what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of Aquila Narragansett.
| 03/16/2024 |
| 06/14/2024 |
If you would invest 0.00 in Aquila Narragansett on March 16, 2024 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding Aquila Narragansett Tax Free or generate 0.0% return on investment in Aquila Narragansett over 90 days. Aquila Narragansett is related to or competes with Kentucky Tax-free, Virginia Bond, Hawaiian Tax-free, Aquila Tax-free, Aquila Tax-free, Usaa Virginia, and Virginia Bond. Under normal circumstances, at least 80 percent of the funds net assets will be invested in municipal obligations that p... More
Aquila Narragansett Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure Aquila Narragansett's mutual fund current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess Aquila Narragansett Tax Free upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Information Ratio | (0.07) | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 0.603 | |||
| Value At Risk | (0.20) | |||
| Potential Upside | 0.2024 |
Aquila Narragansett Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for Aquila Narragansett's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as Aquila Narragansett's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use Aquila Narragansett historical prices to predict the future Aquila Narragansett's volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | (0.09) | |||
| Jensen Alpha | (0.02) | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | (0.02) | |||
| Treynor Ratio | 7.83 |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Aquila Narragansett's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Aquila Narragansett Tax Backtested Returns
Aquila Narragansett Tax secures Sharpe Ratio (or Efficiency) of -0.0598, which signifies that the fund had a -0.0598% return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. Aquila Narragansett Tax Free exposes twenty-two different technical indicators, which can help you to evaluate volatility embedded in its price movement. Please confirm Aquila Narragansett's Mean Deviation of 0.1142, standard deviation of 0.1513, and Risk Adjusted Performance of (0.09) to double-check the risk estimate we provide. The fund shows a Beta (market volatility) of -0.003, which signifies not very significant fluctuations relative to the market. As returns on the market increase, returns on owning Aquila Narragansett are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During the bear market, Aquila Narragansett is likely to outperform the market.
Auto-correlation | 0.56 |
Modest predictability
Aquila Narragansett Tax Free has modest predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between Aquila Narragansett time series from 16th of March 2024 to 30th of April 2024 and 30th of April 2024 to 14th of June 2024. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of Aquila Narragansett Tax price movement. The serial correlation of 0.56 indicates that roughly 56.0% of current Aquila Narragansett price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | 0.56 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | 0.54 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 0.0 |
Aquila Narragansett Tax lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is Aquila Narragansett mutual fund's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting Aquila Narragansett's mutual fund expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of Aquila Narragansett returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that Aquila Narragansett has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the mutual fund is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
Aquila Narragansett regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If Aquila Narragansett mutual fund is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if Aquila Narragansett mutual fund is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in Aquila Narragansett mutual fund over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
Aquila Narragansett Lagged Returns
When evaluating Aquila Narragansett's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of Aquila Narragansett mutual fund have on its future price. Aquila Narragansett autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, Aquila Narragansett autocorrelation shows the relationship between Aquila Narragansett mutual fund current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in Aquila Narragansett Tax Free.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
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Other Information on Investing in Aquila Mutual Fund
Aquila Narragansett financial ratios help investors to determine whether Aquila Mutual Fund is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Aquila with respect to the benefits of owning Aquila Narragansett security.
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