Novartis OTC Stock Market Value

NVSEF
 Stock
  

USD 84.85  0.84  1.00%   

Novartis' market value is the price at which a share of Novartis stock trades on a public exchange. It measures the collective expectations of Novartis Ag Basl investors about the entity's future performance. With this module, you can estimate the performance of a buy and hold strategy of Novartis Ag Basl and determine expected loss or profit from investing in Novartis over a given investment horizon. Additionally, see Novartis Hype Analysis, Novartis Correlation, Novartis Valuation, Novartis Volatility, as well as analyze Novartis Alpha and Beta and Novartis Performance.
Symbol
Backtest


Is Novartis' industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Novartis. If investors know Novartis will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Novartis listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth YOY
0.088
Market Capitalization
194.5 B
Quarterly Revenue Growth YOY
0.009
Return On Assets
0.0651
Return On Equity
0.43
The market value of Novartis Ag Basl is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Novartis that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Novartis' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Novartis' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Novartis' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Novartis' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Novartis' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Novartis value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Novartis' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.

Novartis 'What if' Analysis

In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to Novartis' otc stock what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of Novartis.
0.00
05/02/2022
No Change 0.00  0.0 
In 2 months and 2 days
07/01/2022
0.00
If you would invest  0.00  in Novartis on May 2, 2022 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding Novartis Ag Basl or generate 0.0% return on investment in Novartis over 60 days. Novartis is related to or competes with Chevron Corp, Merck, and Pfizer. Novartis AG researches, develops, manufactures, and markets healthcare products worldwideMore

Novartis Upside/Downside Indicators

Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure Novartis' otc stock current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess Novartis Ag Basl upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.

Novartis Market Risk Indicators

Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for Novartis' investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as Novartis' standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use Novartis historical prices to predict the future Novartis' volatility.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Novartis' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Novartis in the context of predictive analytics.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimated ValueHigh
83.2584.8686.47
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
83.4485.0586.66
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNext ValueHigh
88.1289.7391.35
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowerMiddle BandUpper
76.5685.0593.55
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Novartis. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Novartis' peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Novartis' competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in Novartis Ag Basl.

Novartis Ag Basl Backtested Returns

Novartis Ag Basl has Sharpe Ratio of -0.0368, which conveys that the firm had -0.0368% of return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. Macroaxis standpoint towards estimating the risk of any stock is to look at both systematic and unsystematic factors of the business, including all available market data and technical indicators. Novartis exposes twenty-one different technical indicators, which can help you to evaluate volatility that cannot be diversified away. Please be advised to verify Novartis Ag Basl Mean Deviation of 0.8194, risk adjusted performance of 0.0126, and Downside Deviation of 2.03 to check out the risk estimate we provide.
The company secures a Beta (Market Risk) of 0.1283, which conveys not very significant fluctuations relative to the market. Let's try to break down what Novartis's beta means in this case. As returns on the market increase, Novartis returns are expected to increase less than the market. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Novartis will be expected to be smaller as well. Even though it is essential to pay attention to Novartis Ag Basl price patterns, it is always good to be careful when utilizing equity historical price patterns. Our philosophy towards estimating any stock's future performance is to check both, its past performance charts as well as the business as a whole, including all available technical indicators. Novartis exposes twenty-one different technical indicators, which can help you to evaluate its performance. Novartis Ag Basl has an expected return of -0.0595%. Please be advised to verify Novartis Ag Basl jensen alpha, potential upside, as well as the relationship between the Potential Upside and skewness to decide if Novartis Ag Basl performance from the past will be repeated at some point in the near future.

Auto-correlation

    
  0.04  

Virtually no predictability

Novartis Ag Basl has virtually no predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between Novartis time series from 2nd of May 2022 to 1st of June 2022 and 1st of June 2022 to 1st of July 2022. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of Novartis Ag Basl price movement. The serial correlation of 0.04 indicates that only as little as 4.0% of current Novartis price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
Correlation Coefficient0.04
Spearman Rank Test-0.64
Residual Average0.0
Price Variance15.15

Novartis Ag Basl lagged returns against current returns

Autocorrelation, which is Novartis otc stock's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting Novartis' otc stock expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of Novartis returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that Novartis otc stock has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the stock is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the stock movement to match the lagging time series.
 Current and Lagged Values 
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      Timeline 

Novartis regressed lagged prices vs. current prices

Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If Novartis otc stock is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if Novartis otc stock is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in Novartis otc stock over time.
 Current vs Lagged Prices 
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      Timeline 

Novartis Lagged Returns

When evaluating Novartis' market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of Novartis otc stock have on its future price. Novartis autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, Novartis autocorrelation shows the relationship between Novartis otc stock current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in Novartis Ag Basl.
 Regressed Prices 
Share
      Timeline 

Novartis Investors Sentiment

The influence of Novartis' investor sentiment on the probability of its price appreciation or decline could be a good factor in your decision-making process regarding taking a position in Novartis. The overall investor sentiment generally increases the direction of a stock movement in a one-year investment horizon. However, the impact of investor sentiment on the entire stock markets does not have a solid backing from leading economists and market statisticians.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Novartis in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Novartis' short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Novartis options trading.

Current Sentiment - NVSEF

Novartis Ag Basl Investor Sentiment

Most of Macroaxis users are now bullish on Novartis Ag Basl. What is your trading attitude regarding investing in Novartis Ag Basl? Are you bullish or bearish?
Bullish
Bearish
98% Bullish
2% Bearish

Becoming a Better Investor with Macroaxis

Macroaxis puts the power of mathematics on your side. We analyze your portfolios and positions such as Novartis Ag Basl using complex mathematical models and algorithms, but make them easy to understand. There is no real person involved in your portfolio analysis. We perform a number of calculations to compute absolute and relative portfolio volatility, correlation between your assets, value at risk, expected return as well as over 100 different fundamental and technical indicators.

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Additionally, see Novartis Hype Analysis, Novartis Correlation, Novartis Valuation, Novartis Volatility, as well as analyze Novartis Alpha and Beta and Novartis Performance. Note that the Novartis Ag Basl information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Novartis' statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try Portfolio Rebalancing module to analyze risk-adjusted returns against different time horizons to find asset-allocation targets.

Complementary Tools for Novartis OTC Stock analysis

When running Novartis Ag Basl price analysis, check to measure Novartis' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Novartis is operating at the current time. Most of Novartis' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Novartis' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Novartis' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Novartis to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Novartis technical otc stock analysis exercises models and trading practices based on price and volume transformations, such as the moving averages, relative strength index, regressions, price and return correlations, business cycles, stock market cycles, or different charting patterns.
A focus of Novartis technical analysis is to determine if market prices reflect all relevant information impacting that market. A technical analyst looks at the history of Novartis trading pattern rather than external drivers such as economic, fundamental, or social events. It is believed that price action tends to repeat itself due to investors' collective, patterned behavior. Hence technical analysis focuses on identifiable price trends and conditions. More Info...