Oppenheimer Developing Markets Fund Market Value
| ODVIX Fund | USD 38.74 0.36 0.94% |
| Symbol | Oppenheimer |
Oppenheimer Developing 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to Oppenheimer Developing's mutual fund what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of Oppenheimer Developing.
| 08/27/2023 |
| 04/23/2024 |
If you would invest 0.00 in Oppenheimer Developing on August 27, 2023 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding Oppenheimer Developing Markets or generate 0.0% return on investment in Oppenheimer Developing over 240 days. Oppenheimer Developing is related to or competes with T Rowe, Blackrock Equity, Vanguard Reit, Europacific Growth, and Schwab Target. The fund mainly invests in common stocks of issuers in developing and emerging markets throughout the world and at times... More
Oppenheimer Developing Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure Oppenheimer Developing's mutual fund current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess Oppenheimer Developing Markets upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Downside Deviation | 0.8343 | |||
| Information Ratio | (0.01) | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 3.94 | |||
| Value At Risk | (1.12) | |||
| Potential Upside | 1.24 |
Oppenheimer Developing Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for Oppenheimer Developing's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as Oppenheimer Developing's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use Oppenheimer Developing historical prices to predict the future Oppenheimer Developing's volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | 0.0707 | |||
| Jensen Alpha | 0.0068 | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | (0.02) | |||
| Sortino Ratio | (0.01) | |||
| Treynor Ratio | 0.0875 |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Oppenheimer Developing's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Oppenheimer Developing Backtested Returns
We consider Oppenheimer Developing very steady. Oppenheimer Developing maintains Sharpe Ratio (i.e., Efficiency) of 0.11, which implies the entity had a 0.11% return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. We have found twenty-seven technical indicators for Oppenheimer Developing, which you can use to evaluate the volatility of the fund. Please check Oppenheimer Developing's Semi Deviation of 0.6842, coefficient of variation of 890.14, and Risk Adjusted Performance of 0.0707 to confirm if the risk estimate we provide is consistent with the expected return of 0.0819%. The fund holds a Beta of 0.82, which implies possible diversification benefits within a given portfolio. As returns on the market increase, Oppenheimer Developing's returns are expected to increase less than the market. However, during the bear market, the loss of holding Oppenheimer Developing is expected to be smaller as well.
Auto-correlation | 0.20 |
Weak predictability
Oppenheimer Developing Markets has weak predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between Oppenheimer Developing time series from 27th of August 2023 to 25th of December 2023 and 25th of December 2023 to 23rd of April 2024. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of Oppenheimer Developing price movement. The serial correlation of 0.2 indicates that over 20.0% of current Oppenheimer Developing price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | 0.2 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | 0.03 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 0.93 |
Oppenheimer Developing lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is Oppenheimer Developing mutual fund's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting Oppenheimer Developing's mutual fund expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of Oppenheimer Developing returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that Oppenheimer Developing has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the mutual fund is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
Oppenheimer Developing regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If Oppenheimer Developing mutual fund is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if Oppenheimer Developing mutual fund is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in Oppenheimer Developing mutual fund over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
Oppenheimer Developing Lagged Returns
When evaluating Oppenheimer Developing's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of Oppenheimer Developing mutual fund have on its future price. Oppenheimer Developing autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, Oppenheimer Developing autocorrelation shows the relationship between Oppenheimer Developing mutual fund current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in Oppenheimer Developing Markets.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Oppenheimer Developing in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Oppenheimer Developing's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Oppenheimer Developing options trading.
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Oppenheimer Developing technical mutual fund analysis exercises models and trading practices based on price and volume transformations, such as the moving averages, relative strength index, regressions, price and return correlations, business cycles, fund market cycles, or different charting patterns.