Aquila Tax Free Trust Fund Market Value
| ORTFX Fund | USD 10.27 0.02 0.20% |
| Symbol | Aquila |
Aquila Tax-free 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to Aquila Tax-free's mutual fund what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of Aquila Tax-free.
| 03/05/2024 |
| 05/04/2024 |
If you would invest 0.00 in Aquila Tax-free on March 5, 2024 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding Aquila Tax Free Trust or generate 0.0% return on investment in Aquila Tax-free over 60 days. Aquila Tax-free is related to or competes with Aquila Churchill, Aquila Churchill, Aquila Churchill, Aquila Three, Aquila Three, Aquila Three, and Aquila Three. Under normal circumstances, at least 80 percent of the funds net assets will be invested in municipal obligations that p... More
Aquila Tax-free Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure Aquila Tax-free's mutual fund current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess Aquila Tax Free Trust upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Information Ratio | (0.83) | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 0.5793 | |||
| Value At Risk | (0.19) | |||
| Potential Upside | 0.1932 |
Aquila Tax-free Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for Aquila Tax-free's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as Aquila Tax-free's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use Aquila Tax-free historical prices to predict the future Aquila Tax-free's volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | (0.11) | |||
| Jensen Alpha | (0.02) | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | (0.03) | |||
| Treynor Ratio | (0.52) |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Aquila Tax-free's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Aquila Tax Free Backtested Returns
Aquila Tax Free secures Sharpe Ratio (or Efficiency) of -0.0779, which signifies that the fund had a -0.0779% return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. Aquila Tax Free Trust exposes twenty-one different technical indicators, which can help you to evaluate volatility embedded in its price movement. Please confirm Aquila Tax-free's Risk Adjusted Performance of (0.11), mean deviation of 0.0759, and Standard Deviation of 0.1096 to double-check the risk estimate we provide. The fund shows a Beta (market volatility) of 0.0415, which signifies not very significant fluctuations relative to the market. As returns on the market increase, Aquila Tax-free's returns are expected to increase less than the market. However, during the bear market, the loss of holding Aquila Tax-free is expected to be smaller as well.
Auto-correlation | 0.42 |
Average predictability
Aquila Tax Free Trust has average predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between Aquila Tax-free time series from 5th of March 2024 to 4th of April 2024 and 4th of April 2024 to 4th of May 2024. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of Aquila Tax Free price movement. The serial correlation of 0.42 indicates that just about 42.0% of current Aquila Tax-free price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | 0.42 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | 0.44 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 0.0 |
Aquila Tax Free lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is Aquila Tax-free mutual fund's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting Aquila Tax-free's mutual fund expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of Aquila Tax-free returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that Aquila Tax-free has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the mutual fund is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
Aquila Tax-free regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If Aquila Tax-free mutual fund is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if Aquila Tax-free mutual fund is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in Aquila Tax-free mutual fund over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
Aquila Tax-free Lagged Returns
When evaluating Aquila Tax-free's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of Aquila Tax-free mutual fund have on its future price. Aquila Tax-free autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, Aquila Tax-free autocorrelation shows the relationship between Aquila Tax-free mutual fund current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in Aquila Tax Free Trust.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Aquila Tax-free in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Aquila Tax-free's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Aquila Tax-free options trading.
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Try AI Portfolio ArchitectCheck out Aquila Tax-free Correlation, Aquila Tax-free Volatility and Aquila Tax-free Alpha and Beta module to complement your research on Aquila Tax-free. Note that the Aquila Tax Free information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Aquila Tax-free's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try the Portfolio Analyzer module to portfolio analysis module that provides access to portfolio diagnostics and optimization engine.
Aquila Tax-free technical mutual fund analysis exercises models and trading practices based on price and volume transformations, such as the moving averages, relative strength index, regressions, price and return correlations, business cycles, fund market cycles, or different charting patterns.