Overlay Shares Municipal Etf Market Value
| OVM Etf | USD 21.81 0.07 0.32% |
| Symbol | Overlay |
The market value of Overlay Shares Municipal is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Overlay that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Overlay Shares' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Overlay Shares' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Overlay Shares' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Overlay Shares' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Overlay Shares' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Overlay Shares is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Overlay Shares' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.
Overlay Shares 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to Overlay Shares' etf what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of Overlay Shares.
| 03/26/2024 |
| 04/25/2024 |
If you would invest 0.00 in Overlay Shares on March 26, 2024 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding Overlay Shares Municipal or generate 0.0% return on investment in Overlay Shares over 30 days. Overlay Shares is related to or competes with VanEck Intermediate, SPDR Nuveen, and Invesco California. The fund is an actively-managed exchange-traded fund that seeks to achieve its objective by investing in one or more oth... More
Overlay Shares Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure Overlay Shares' etf current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess Overlay Shares Municipal upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Information Ratio | (0.31) | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 1.59 | |||
| Value At Risk | (0.63) | |||
| Potential Upside | 0.4545 |
Overlay Shares Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for Overlay Shares' investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as Overlay Shares' standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use Overlay Shares historical prices to predict the future Overlay Shares' volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | (0.02) | |||
| Jensen Alpha | (0.04) | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | (0.06) | |||
| Treynor Ratio | (0.04) |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Overlay Shares' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Overlay Shares Municipal Backtested Returns
Overlay Shares Municipal maintains Sharpe Ratio (i.e., Efficiency) of -0.003, which implies the entity had a -0.003% return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. Overlay Shares Municipal exposes twenty-three different technical indicators, which can help you to evaluate volatility embedded in its price movement. Please check Overlay Shares' Risk Adjusted Performance of (0.02), coefficient of variation of (10,503), and Variance of 0.0988 to confirm the risk estimate we provide. The etf holds a Beta of 0.36, which implies possible diversification benefits within a given portfolio. As returns on the market increase, Overlay Shares' returns are expected to increase less than the market. However, during the bear market, the loss of holding Overlay Shares is expected to be smaller as well.
Auto-correlation | 0.70 |
Good predictability
Overlay Shares Municipal has good predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between Overlay Shares time series from 26th of March 2024 to 10th of April 2024 and 10th of April 2024 to 25th of April 2024. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of Overlay Shares Municipal price movement. The serial correlation of 0.7 indicates that around 70.0% of current Overlay Shares price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | 0.7 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | 0.37 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 0.01 |
Overlay Shares Municipal lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is Overlay Shares etf's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting Overlay Shares' etf expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of Overlay Shares returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that Overlay Shares has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the etf is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
Overlay Shares regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If Overlay Shares etf is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if Overlay Shares etf is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in Overlay Shares etf over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
Overlay Shares Lagged Returns
When evaluating Overlay Shares' market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of Overlay Shares etf have on its future price. Overlay Shares autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, Overlay Shares autocorrelation shows the relationship between Overlay Shares etf current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in Overlay Shares Municipal.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Overlay Shares in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Overlay Shares' short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Overlay Shares options trading.
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Overlay Shares technical etf analysis exercises models and trading practices based on price and volume transformations, such as the moving averages, relative strength index, regressions, price and return correlations, business cycles, etf market cycles, or different charting patterns.