Federated Prudent Bear Fund Market Value
| PBRCX Fund | USD 4.76 0.01 0.21% |
| Symbol | Federated |
Federated Prudent 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to Federated Prudent's mutual fund what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of Federated Prudent.
| 04/24/2023 |
| 04/18/2024 |
If you would invest 0.00 in Federated Prudent on April 24, 2023 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding Federated Prudent Bear or generate 0.0% return on investment in Federated Prudent over 360 days. Federated Prudent is related to or competes with Federated Hermes, Federated Mdt, Federated High, Federated Hermes, Federated Hermes, Federated Hermes, and Federated Hermes. The fund pursues its investment objective primarily through short positions in domestically traded equity securities and... More
Federated Prudent Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure Federated Prudent's mutual fund current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess Federated Prudent Bear upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Information Ratio | (0.13) | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 3.57 | |||
| Value At Risk | (1.08) | |||
| Potential Upside | 1.31 |
Federated Prudent Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for Federated Prudent's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as Federated Prudent's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use Federated Prudent historical prices to predict the future Federated Prudent's volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | (0.03) | |||
| Jensen Alpha | (0) | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | (0.10) | |||
| Treynor Ratio | 0.0494 |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Federated Prudent's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Federated Prudent Bear Backtested Returns
Federated Prudent Bear secures Sharpe Ratio (or Efficiency) of -0.0336, which denotes the fund had a -0.0336% return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. Federated Prudent Bear exposes twenty-two different technical indicators, which can help you to evaluate volatility embedded in its price movement. Please confirm Federated Prudent's Mean Deviation of 0.5568, variance of 0.517, and Standard Deviation of 0.7191 to check the risk estimate we provide. The fund shows a Beta (market volatility) of -0.98, which means possible diversification benefits within a given portfolio. As the market becomes more bullish, returns on owning Federated Prudent are expected to decrease slowly. On the other hand, during market turmoil, Federated Prudent is expected to outperform it slightly.
Auto-correlation | 0.65 |
Good predictability
Federated Prudent Bear has good predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between Federated Prudent time series from 24th of April 2023 to 21st of October 2023 and 21st of October 2023 to 18th of April 2024. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of Federated Prudent Bear price movement. The serial correlation of 0.65 indicates that roughly 65.0% of current Federated Prudent price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | 0.65 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | 0.56 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 0.06 |
Federated Prudent Bear lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is Federated Prudent mutual fund's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting Federated Prudent's mutual fund expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of Federated Prudent returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that Federated Prudent has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the mutual fund is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
Federated Prudent regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If Federated Prudent mutual fund is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if Federated Prudent mutual fund is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in Federated Prudent mutual fund over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
Federated Prudent Lagged Returns
When evaluating Federated Prudent's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of Federated Prudent mutual fund have on its future price. Federated Prudent autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, Federated Prudent autocorrelation shows the relationship between Federated Prudent mutual fund current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in Federated Prudent Bear.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Federated Prudent in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Federated Prudent's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Federated Prudent options trading.
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Check out Federated Prudent Correlation, Federated Prudent Volatility and Federated Prudent Alpha and Beta module to complement your research on Federated Prudent. Note that the Federated Prudent Bear information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Federated Prudent's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try the Crypto Correlations module to use cryptocurrency correlation module to diversify your cryptocurrency portfolio across multiple coins.
Federated Prudent technical mutual fund analysis exercises models and trading practices based on price and volume transformations, such as the moving averages, relative strength index, regressions, price and return correlations, business cycles, fund market cycles, or different charting patterns.