Origin Emerging Markets Fund Market Value
| POEFX Fund | USD 10.22 0.07 0.69% |
| Symbol | Origin |
Origin Emerging 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to Origin Emerging's mutual fund what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of Origin Emerging.
| 03/26/2024 |
| 04/25/2024 |
If you would invest 0.00 in Origin Emerging on March 26, 2024 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding Origin Emerging Markets or generate 0.0% return on investment in Origin Emerging over 30 days. Origin Emerging is related to or competes with Amana Income, Amana Growth, Amana Participation, HUMANA, Barloworld, Morningstar Unconstrained, and High Yield. The fund invests at least 80 percent of its net assets, plus any borrowings for investment purposes, in equity securitie... More
Origin Emerging Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure Origin Emerging's mutual fund current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess Origin Emerging Markets upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Downside Deviation | 0.738 | |||
| Information Ratio | 0.0483 | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 3.94 | |||
| Value At Risk | (0.98) | |||
| Potential Upside | 1.1 |
Origin Emerging Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for Origin Emerging's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as Origin Emerging's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use Origin Emerging historical prices to predict the future Origin Emerging's volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | 0.1135 | |||
| Jensen Alpha | 0.0611 | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | 0.0211 | |||
| Sortino Ratio | 0.0474 | |||
| Treynor Ratio | 0.1734 |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Origin Emerging's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Origin Emerging Markets Backtested Returns
We consider Origin Emerging very steady. Origin Emerging Markets maintains Sharpe Ratio (i.e., Efficiency) of 0.18, which implies the entity had a 0.18% return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. We have found twenty-eight technical indicators for Origin Emerging Markets, which you can use to evaluate the volatility of the fund. Please check Origin Emerging's Semi Deviation of 0.5248, risk adjusted performance of 0.1135, and Coefficient Of Variation of 556.46 to confirm if the risk estimate we provide is consistent with the expected return of 0.13%. The fund holds a Beta of 0.69, which implies possible diversification benefits within a given portfolio. As returns on the market increase, Origin Emerging's returns are expected to increase less than the market. However, during the bear market, the loss of holding Origin Emerging is expected to be smaller as well.
Auto-correlation | -0.45 |
Modest reverse predictability
Origin Emerging Markets has modest reverse predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between Origin Emerging time series from 26th of March 2024 to 10th of April 2024 and 10th of April 2024 to 25th of April 2024. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of Origin Emerging Markets price movement. The serial correlation of -0.45 indicates that just about 45.0% of current Origin Emerging price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | -0.45 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | -0.2 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 0.02 |
Origin Emerging Markets lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is Origin Emerging mutual fund's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting Origin Emerging's mutual fund expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of Origin Emerging returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that Origin Emerging has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the mutual fund is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
Origin Emerging regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If Origin Emerging mutual fund is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if Origin Emerging mutual fund is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in Origin Emerging mutual fund over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
Origin Emerging Lagged Returns
When evaluating Origin Emerging's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of Origin Emerging mutual fund have on its future price. Origin Emerging autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, Origin Emerging autocorrelation shows the relationship between Origin Emerging mutual fund current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in Origin Emerging Markets.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Origin Emerging in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Origin Emerging's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Origin Emerging options trading.
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Check out Origin Emerging Correlation, Origin Emerging Volatility and Origin Emerging Alpha and Beta module to complement your research on Origin Emerging. Note that the Origin Emerging Markets information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Origin Emerging's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try the Investing Opportunities module to build portfolios using our predefined set of ideas and optimize them against your investing preferences.
Origin Emerging technical mutual fund analysis exercises models and trading practices based on price and volume transformations, such as the moving averages, relative strength index, regressions, price and return correlations, business cycles, fund market cycles, or different charting patterns.